Bournemouth vs Chelsea Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Chelsea team.
Bournemouth vs Chelsea Odds
|Over / Under|
-163 / +130
Chelsea will look to improve on their uneven start to Mauricio Pochettino's project on Sunday when they visit a Bournemouth side still seeking its first win of the new league campaign.
Pochettino's group have shown more attacking endeavor through their first four games than the side that labored under the guidance of Thomas Tuchel and then Graham Potter last season. The results have yet to materialize, though, and they went into the international break frustrated after a 1-0 home loss to Nottingham Forest.
Bournemouth have also shown some attacking promise for a team more accustomed than Chelsea to the bottom half of the table, but they have been hurt so far on the defensive end. Bournemouth have conceded in every game they've played in all competitions.
Chelsea won both league meetings last season by two goals, with Bournemouth one of only three league opponents the Blues swept all season.
Let's dive into my Bournemouth vs Chelsea pick for their Sunday Premier League contest.
Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola is the latest Marcelo Bielsa disciple to try his hand in the Premier League, and so far he's stayed true to his high press principles to mixed effect.
The 0-2-2 (W-L-D) record in the league will suggest more failure than success. However, the early schedule has been brutal — all four of the Cherries' previous opponents entered match day 5 above the mid-point in the current league table, including three of the four teams that were tied for second.
Dominic Solanke has scored twice so far — on about that many xG worth of chances — as he attempts to convert his prolific production at the League Championship level to more robust Premier League numbers. His six-goal league total last season was a mild disappointment and more than three goals shy of his xG numbers.
Colombian winger Luis Sinisterra could make his club debut — perhaps off the bench after returning from across the Atlantic for international duty. American loan signing Tyler Adams remains out with a thigh issue.
While the substance of Pochettino's Chelsea has been considerably different from previous versions, some of the problems remain the same.
For starters, despite an enormous volume of summer transfer window business, it's unclear if the Blues have solved their issues at center forward. Former Villareal man Nicolas Jackon has one goal in four starts in the role, and that came in a relatively low-leverage situation with his side already two goals in front in a 3-0 home win over Luton Town.
Maybe Jackson will go on a run once he scores his first goal in a big situation, but right no his 3.0 xG in terms of chances to score that one goal speaks for a solid chunk of Chelsea's underperformance of those xG totals.
The Blues' -3.3 goals-minus-xG number was the second-worst in the league entering the weekend, ahead of only Everton, who have scored only twice on 7.2 xG.
Ecuador's Moises Caicedo and Argentina's Enzo Fernandez are returning from international duty across the Atlantic, but the Sunday kickoff should help that duo's chances to participate.
Bournemouth vs Chelsea
Pick & Prediction
One team has an in-form striker and has been blooded against a schedule of the best early-season performers. The other has an unproven commodity at the No. 9 position and has struggled despite playing most of their early fixtures at home.
In short, while I still think it's possible Chelsea will make a substantial improvement under Pochettino, I don't think there's as much evidence of it yet as the analytics suggest, particularly when early xG numbers are skewed by a home-heavy schedule.
I like playing the Cherries to earn at least a point at +110 and an implied 47.6% probability. I wouldn't go much lower than that, though, and if the line does drop an alternative might be their team total over 1.5 goals or Solanke to score anytime.