Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Betting Preview: Is There Value on Brighton at Home?

Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Tottenham Betting Preview: Is There Value on Brighton at Home? article feature image
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Michael Regan/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Danny Welbeck and his teammates celebrate a goal against Manchester United.

  • Brighton and Tottenham will go head-to-head Saturday morning.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the match and why he sees value Brighton.

Brighton vs. Tottenham Odds

Brighton Odds+170
Tottenham Odds+160
Draw+240
Over/Under2.5 (-122 / +100)
Day | TimeSaturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To WatchNBC
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Tottenham suffered its first league defeat of the season in the North London Derby last Saturday, a 3-1 loss to Arsenal. Winning on the road this Saturday at Brighton won't much easier for the Spurs given the difficult fixture spot sandwiched between two Champions League matches.

The Seagulls just had one of their most impressive results of the season on the road at Liverpool as Brighton scored a late goal to earn a deserved 3-3 draw. The Seagulls tossed away a two-goal lead in that match, but on the balance of chances, Brighton deserved the result.

The Spurs have been sputtering a bit in recent weeks, losing 2-0 to Sporting Lisbon and drawing 0-0 with Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League. Now with a defeat in the league, will the Spurs rebound on the road Saturday against a Seagulls side that may be a bit undervalued in this match?

Brighton

The Seagulls may have lost Graham Potter to Chelsea, but the manager they've selected to replace him is another excellent fit for the club. Roberto De Zerbi, thanks to the international break and the canceled matches, took over with a bunch of extra time to develop his philosophy and implement it on his players.

The changes were immediately noticeable against Liverpool.

Brighton had become more direct under Potter this season — less playing out from the back and more direct attacking speed, relying less on a slow build-up. The Seagulls were top five in direct attacks and one criticism of the Potter system was that it was too slow and didn't result in enough clear scoring chances.

De Zerbi demands playing out from the back and kicking it short from goal kicks. The Spurs aren't particularly effective at pressing from the front because of their aging personnel on the front line with Harry Kane and Huang-min Son. Neither side presses much either.

However, the De Zerbi system is really effective at baiting opponents to overcommit trying to win the ball back and then playing balls over the top and around the wings to create big chances.

Another major key for Brighton: It doesn't concede big chances. The Spurs are heavily reliant on transition goals and the Seagulls are the fourth best in the Premier League at preventing big scoring chances.

De Zerbi's attacking system is really interesting against the Spurs because too many teams settle for low quality shots against Tottenham. I don't think Brighton will do the same on Saturday.

Tottenham

The narrative surrounding the Spurs' performances to begin the season are probably a bit too negative. Tottenham still has a solid xG differential and is never going to be a possession-dominant side. But the inability to press effectively and the ball retention regression has hurt the underlying numbers.

I don't think Tottenham will match the +1.00 xG difference per match from the second half of last season. One major reason why is the field tilt. The Spurs were at 47% last season, which isn't good for an elite team but worked for the Spurs because they create much higher quality shots than their opponents.

This year, the field tilt is way down at 37%. That's too much opponent possession in dangerous areas. It's a balance for Tottenham and it isn't getting it right at the moment.

The opposition build up percentage allowed is third worst in the league, trailing just Bournemouth and Palace. Palace has run the gauntlet of top six teams and Bournemouth is the worst team in the league.

Now, the Spurs face possession dominant Brighton on the road. The Seagulls completely took away transition against the Spurs in the spring and Tottenham will struggle to create chances and posses the ball in dangerous areas.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Through eight Premier League matches in 2022, Brighton and Spurs have both played two big six sides and the net xG difference for both is +0.44 per 90 minutes.

Tottenham has struggled with its field tilt and ability to retain the ball recently, in part because the unit doesn’t press much and looks to create opportunities through transition. The Seagulls were playing somewhat more directly under Potter this season when compared to last, but he’s gone now, and De Zerbi is going to prioritize short goal kicks and playing out from the back.

When these two sides met in North London in the spring, Brighton completely shut off Spurs’ transition opportunities. Tottenham’s rise in the second half of last season was heavily dependent on the chance creation of Dejan Kulusevski. His absence leaves Tottenham without enough chance creators to feed Kane and Son.

Brighton should control most of the midfield exchanges and should be a slight favorite to win this match at home. Tottenham isn’t flying nearly as high as it was at the end of last year and will struggle to control this match. I project Brighton as a small favorite and like them on the draw no bet line at -110 or better.

The Pick: Brighton PK (+100)

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