Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Bundesliga Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Back Visiting Red Bulls to Get Crucial Result (April 2)

Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig Odds

Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig enter Saturday's Bundesliga clash in some of their best form of the season, with the latter side unbeaten in its last nine matches. The Red Bulls have only lost once in 2022, which came in a 3-2 defeat against Bayern Munich.

Dortmund might have been bounced from the Europa League in February, but the Black and Yellows are unbeaten in six matches across all competitions. A hot finish could be enough for them to really challenge the Bavarians for the league title, as there are seven matches to go and they trail by just six points. Given that Dortmund still plays Bayern once more, the club could make the league competitive if it wins its remaining matches.

That road starts with a difficult match against the league's second-best team in Leipzig, based on underlying metrics. The Red Bulls are deadlocked in a top-four race for the Champions League places with Freiburg, Bayer Leverkusen and Hoffenheim. They also have a pivotal Europa League quarterfinal first-leg meeting with Serie A side Atalanta on Thursday's card.

Dortmund star striker Erling Haaland is now in doubt for this game after he picked up an injury playing a friendly for Norway against Armenia during the international break. It's unclear whether he'll play, but the market seems to think he will be available, based on the current pricing.

Even if Haaland does play, though, Leipzig is the better team by a considerable margin and Dortmund has regression coming that suggests it's a bit overrated as of this writing.

Dortmund Offense Has Hit Rough Patch

Dortmund has managed just four total goals in the last four games, and the xG numbers aren't much better. The club did total 2.0 expected goals against Arminia Bieleleld, which happens to be the worst team in the German top flight by xG this season.

The other matches included 0.5 xG against Augsburg and 0.8 versus Mainz in the first game back for its foe off a COVID-19 pause. The fourth and most recent game was a 1-1 draw with Köln in which Dortmund produced nine shots.

Without Haaland, the Black and Yellows really struggled to consistently produce chances. And even with him, as he played 87 minutes against Köln, they haven't consistently dominated midfield enough to produce box entries and shots on goal.

Like Leverkusen, Dortmund has vastly over-performed with its finishing numbers that have propelled its otherwise lackluster attack. Having 48 xG for in 27 matches isn't terrible in the Bundesliga, but it's not at the level of elite production we're used to seeing from the Black and Yellows. Some of that is injuries to Haaland and Giovanni Reyna, but they've struggled to really dominate the midfield and the ball enough as well.

Dortmund has 66 goals, but its attack is largely overrated because of how well its run has been finishing. The Black and Yellows, who are due for some regression, are just fifth in box entries and 16th in crosses completed into the penalty area. The attack is fifth in NPxG, which is much lower than normal.

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RB Leipzig Struggling to Secure Victories

While Dortmund's underlying numbers have struggled, Leipzig has shined recently, but it continues to settle for frustrating draws because finishing variance has broken against it. Look no further than the 0-0 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt where Leipzig held a dominate 1.2-0.1 xG advantage.

The Red Bulls have won the xG battle in eight of their last 10 matches, with the loss against Bayern being the only match where they conceded more than 1.1 xGA during that span. The defense had major issues conceding big scoring chances early on, but it has improved since Domenico Tedesco took over for Jesse Marsch and returned them to a more possession-based approach.

Dortmund's defensive issues have come from miscues producing big scoring chances for the opponent. The club has also been extremely vulnerable in the midfield against teams able to pass through and control games. Hoffenheim, Mainz and even Köln at times were able to control large stretches of play.

I'm expecting Leipzig to be able to do the same, given how dominant its box entries produced and allowed have been. The team allows the fewest entries into its own area and, offensively, only Bayern progresses the ball better.

BJ Cunningham's Bundesliga Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Leipzig dominated the midfield in the first meeting between these teams, creating 2.4 xG to just 1.2 xG for Dortmund. Haaland didn't play in that match either and I'm expecting the Black and Yellows to lack the direct attacking ability it will need if Haaland is unable to go.

The Red Bulls will once again control the flow of the game, plus the improved defense against big scoring chances and direct attacks vertically will help them get a road result.

As much as Dortmund is supposedly close to Bayern Munich, its performances have severely underwhelmed in the last month. It hasn't shown up in the results for the hosts up to this point, but underlying metrics suggest regression is coming hard for manager Marco Rose's men.

I make this a true toss-up with Haaland and think Leipzig should be a slight favorite if he's unable to play. I grabbed the +0.25 on the spread line at -120 odds via the Asian Handicap. I also like the Draw No Bet wager at +115 odds if you're unable to find that number.

Pick: RB Leipzig +0.25 (-120)

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