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Bundesliga Odds, Picks & Prediction: Freiburg vs. Borussia Dortmund Betting Preview (Friday, Aug. 12)

Bundesliga Odds, Picks & Prediction: Freiburg vs. Borussia Dortmund Betting Preview (Friday, Aug. 12) article feature image
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Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund standout Karim Adeyemi.

Freiburg vs. Dortmund Odds

Freiburg Odds +200
Dortmund Odds +120
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-185 / +130)
Day | Time Friday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Borussia Dortmund opened its Bundesliga campaign with a 1-0 win at home against Bayer Leverkusen last weekend. Now, the Black and Yellows hit the road Friday for a difficult match at Freiburg.

The hosts also won their opening match against bottom-of-the-table Augsburg in a 4-0 road shutout despite producing just 1.2 expected goals in the victory. That game continued the trend from last season for Freiburg, which greatly outperformed its xG numbers and ran unsustainably well on set pieces.

These sides met last season in the second week of the Bundesliga campaign, which resulted in a stunning 2-1 upset by Freiburg that was largely driven by finishing variance. Dortmund showed as much in the second meeting when the Black and Yellows cruised to a 5-1 victory and controlled the chances created once again.

Freiburg’s sixth-place finish has it getting a lot of market respect, but I’m not buying into it being repeatable in the 2022-23 campaign.

Freiburg

Freiburg scored 58 goals from 49 xG last season, which was a modest over-performance, but it was only marginally better than an average Bundesliga team across the whole of the season.

The side might have finished in the Europa League places, but a lot of that had to do with poor seasons from traditionally better teams like Wolfsburg, Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Freiburg stood as the beneficiary of that last season, with a cohesive, defense-first side. Given the budget and value of its squad being closer to the bottom of the league, though, I’m going to bet on it regressing quite a bit in finishing and level of performance this season.

By The Numbers

  • 0.34 — Freiburg’s ratio of xG created on set pieces versus open play was by far the largest in the Bundesliga last year.
  • 19 — The side scored five more goals off set plays than any team in league play.
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Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund had a ton of struggles on the road last season, but I’m higher on the outfit than the market despite the loss of star striker Erling Haaland.

The German side has made a number of key additions to its lineup, including striker Karim Adeyemi and Anthony Modeste from Köln to replace Haaland.

Dortmund finally has a settled manager in Edin Terzic. The Black and Yellows upgraded the defense with the addition of Nico Schlotterbeck and should be an improved side to the one that relied on xG over-performance in attack to sustain its top two position in the league a season ago.

They did a much better job of possessing the ball in their final third of the pitch and avoiding high turnovers against Leverkusen’s press. Given Freiburg had pretty low pressing numbers last season, I don’t expect Dortmund to have a problem from controlling the midfield despite being on the road.

By The Numbers

  • 9 — Dortmund had major set-piece defense issues early in the season that hurt them. but they improved once Terzic took over.  It allowed this number of them all season.
  • — Dortmund had the third-best xG difference per 90 in the second half of play in the German top flight last season, which was five spots better than Freiburg.

Betting Analysis & Pick

One of Dortmund’s biggest issues last season was set pieces, but that improved as things progressed and Marco Rose was replaced by Terzic. That was also a weakness of center back Manuel Akanji, who’s unlikely to start as Dortmund has upgraded him with Schlotterbeck.

Freiburg doesn’t have the capability to expose the biggest weakness Dortmund had last season, as it wasn’t good at creating big scoring chances from open play. Because of this, the favorite’s superior talent should win out.

My projection makes Dortmund +100 on the moneyline to take all three points in this match. That said, I’d bet the Black and Yellows at +110 or better to win outright.

The Pick: Dortmund ML (+110 or better)

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