Burnley vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Sunday Premier League Betting Preview (August 29)

Burnley vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Sunday Premier League Betting Preview (August 29) article feature image
Credit:

Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Bamford.

  • Burnley host Leeds United in Sunday Premier League action on Aug. 29 with both clubs seeking their first wins of the season.
  • The matchup features a compelling clash of styles as the Clarets' aggressive, physical play meets Leeds' free-flowing attack.
  • Matthew Trebby explains why the early-season metrics for both teams may be deceiving, which has subsequently resulted in Leeds United being undervalued in the betting market.

Burnley vs. Leeds Odds

Burnley Odds +210
Leeds Odds +130
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds updated Saturday morning via BetMGM.

Two clubs in search of their first win of the season meet on Sunday morning at Turf Moor, where Burnley will play host to Leeds United.

These teams could not have more different philosophies. Burnley are an aggressive, physical side that are very direct in attack, while Leeds try to play a free-flowing style that usually sees plenty of chances created.

So far, though, the numbers would indicate the roles have been reversed through two games. Let’s break down the matchup and why that should change — potentially as soon as Sunday morning.

Clarets Look for First Points of New Season

Before the season, Burnley were one of my favorite bets to be relegated at around +250. So far, despite improved expected goals (xG) numbers, I haven’t seen anything to change my mind.

Burnley blew a 1-0 lead in their season opener against Brighton, eventually falling 2-1 at home. The Clarets won the xG battle 1.80-1.69, but the quality up front simply doesn’t appear to be there. They also finished 17th in the Premier league in xG last year, registering 38.13 xG over the 38-game season.

Sean Dyche’s team was thoroughly dominated last week at Liverpool and was fortunate to lose only 2-0.

Of Burnley’s 2.65 xG this season, 1.61 have been created by their center backs. Strikers Ashley Barnes, Jay Rodriguez and Chris Wood have each played at least 100 minutes through two games and created just 0.69 xG.

Burnley’s aggressive, direct style is going to eventually fail. They are not one of the teams destined for a two-decade run in the Premier League.

A lack of significant movement in the transfer market coming off a season that saw them finish 17th in the table has me thinking this could be the season they go back down. I will happily continue to find ways to fade them.

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Leeds Due for Greater Chance Creation

There appears to be positive regression coming for Leeds United.

Marcelo Bielsa’s free-flowing side suffered a brutal 5-1 defeat to open the season at Manchester United, who finished pretty much every above-average chance they had in the game. Leeds followed that up with a 2-2 home draw against Everton.

While there have been 10 goals in Leeds’ first two games, those matchups only saw 5.03 expected goals (xG) registered. That means there was a lot of high-quality finishing on display then.

The startling part for Leeds is that they created just 1.53 xG. If Bielsa & Co. are going to build upon a decent first season back in the Premier League, that number has to be greater. With all due respect to Everton, Leeds should be creating more than 1.05 xG from 17 shots.

Last season, Leeds ranked sixth in the Premier League with 59.26 xG and fifth with 56.21 non-penalty xG. More chances, and likely more goals, are coming.

Most of the time, Leeds’ attack goes through Raphinha, who looks like he has loads of potential on the right wing. Jack Harrison is more than capable on the left wing, as well.

Patrick Bamford is yet to score this season, but he actually matches up relatively well with Burnley’s rugged defense. The Englishman’s style is sufficiently physical that he won’t be put off by the Clarets’ style.

Betting Analysis & Pick

This is pretty simple for me. Leeds are due to create more chances and likely score more goals, while Burnley seem unlikely to continue creating 1.5 xG per game.

Even though Turf Moor can be intimidating, I’m backing Leeds to come away with three points at plus money.

Pick: Leeds United ML (+130)

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