Wednesday Champions League Betting Odds & Pick: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid (Feb. 26, 2020)

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Malcolm Couzens/Getty Images.

  • Manchester City is favored over Real Madrid in updated Champions League odds, but both are listed as underdogs in three-way markets that account for a draw.
  • Man City won't be able to catch Liverpool in the Premier League and will be banned from the Champions League for two years after this tournament, so it should be motivated to finish this tournament strong.
  • See our picks for Man City vs. Real Madrid below.

Champions League Odds: Man City at Real Madrid

  • Manchester City odds: +132
  • Real Madrid odds: +188
  • Draw: +270
  • Over/Under: 3 (+100/-124)
  • Time: Wednesday, 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: TNT

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You could not ask for a better Champions League match than Wednesday’s heavyweight tussle between Manchester City and Real Madrid.

Both clubs are hoping to add one more piece of tournament hardware to their respective decorated trophy cases and look to get off on the right foot in the first leg of this Round of 16 showdown.

Real Madrid, which leads La Liga with 50.53 expected goals, could not have asked for a worse scenario entering the contest. Los Blancos suffered a stunning 1-0 loss at Levante in its most recent match, which led to it falling off the top of the league standings and two points behind new leader Barcelona. To add insult to injury, Real Madrid lost star Eden Hazard after he fractured his ankle, which could sideline him the remainder of the season.

Manchester City, which leads the Premier League in expected goals (71.94), has put the Champions League at the top of their priorities for multiple reasons. Liverpool has run away in the Premier League and should clinch the championship in March, thus shutting down any other club’s aspirations of making a title run.

The major motivating factor behind The Citizens’ goal of capturing the Champions League crown is the fact they’re not going to be back in this competition anytime soon.

Manchester City was ejected from all European football competitions for the next two seasons after UEFA — European soccer’s governing body — found the club guilty of breaking Financial Fair Play rules. Barring a successful appeal, the earliest Manchester City would have a shot to get back here would be the 2022-23 season.


Real Madrid vs. Manchester City Tale of the Tape

  • Manchester City is unbeaten in its last seven Champions League matches
  • The total has gone over 2.5 goals in eight of Real Madrid’s last 10 Champions League contests
  • Both teams have scored in Manchester City’s last four Champions League games
  • Real Madrid has registered a goal in its last 22 home knockout-stage matches in Champions League play

As for the present and match at hand, one historical aspect is working against Manchester City despite having a better current stretch of form than Real Madrid. The Citizens were unable to secure a victory in their four previous matches against Real Madrid. Those games all came in Champions League play and two of those defeats happened at the Santiago Bernabeu.

On paper, this looks like the hardest match to handicap in the Round of 16 opening legs. You have two storied clubs rich in tradition needing this match for very different reasons. I don’t see much between these sides and don’t think either team will be taking any unnecessary risks. Manchester City knows it gets the key return leg at home, so getting back to Etihad Stadium with a draw would be a win.

That said, I am backing both sides to score and sprinkling a little on the draw.

The Bet(s): Draw +275; Both Teams To Score: Yes (-200)

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