Monday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Brighton Betting Preview (Sept. 27)
Nigel Roddis/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton standout Neal Maupay, right, and his teammates celebrate a goal.
- Brighton have a chance to move atop the Premier League table Monday with a win against Crystal Palace.
- The Seagulls, who are currently +150 favorites, have four wins in five matches to start their campaign.
- Jeremy Pond breaks down this meeting at Selhurst Park below and explains where he's found betting value in the latest M23 derby.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+210|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+130 / -160)|
|Day | Time||Monday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBCSN | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.|
Talk about a reversal of fortune for Brighton & Hove Albion
Last season, the club was just trying to stay afloat in the Premier League and avoid relegation. Brighton wound up surviving, yet finished a disappointing 16th in the standings in what was a season to forget.
Now, the Seagulls have a chance to leapfrog the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, reigning champion Manchester City and others to move into first place in the with a victory in Monday’s M23 derby at Selhurst Park.
Brighton, which has four wins against one defeat thus far, enters this showdown as a solid +150 moneyline favorite. Crystal Palace has been anything but consistent to start its campaign, picking up just two wins in five contests under new manager Patrick Vieira. The Eagles suffered a 3-0 setback against league leader Liverpool last time out.
As for recent history between these clubs, the last two confrontations at Selhurst Park have ended in stalemates. And to make things look even more even, the head-to-head series stands at 2-2-2 in their last six meetings.
That said, let’s take a look at this matchup and find some betting value.
Crystal Palace Trying to Find Footing Under Vieira
It has been a rough start for Vieira, who scored 29 goals in 279 matches during his time at Arsenal. The French international has the Eagles sitting on a 1-2-2 (W-L-D) record this far, but their losses came at the hands of Chelsea and Liverpool. Sandwiched in between those defeats are draws with Brentford and West Ham United, as well as a 3-0 thrashing of Tottenham Hotspur.
Vieira’s team has struggled to find the back of the net, only scoring five goals en route to getting shutout on three occasions. Standouts Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke have been utterly stagnant up top, combining for just one goal in 811 minutes of action.
In contrast, former Celtic and Paris Saint-Germain striker Odsonne Édouard has logged just 33 minutes in two matches and scored twice. So, if the aforementioned pair turn it on and Édouard continues to shine, this could be a sneaky good Crystal Palace attack moving forward.
When looking at its advanced metrics, Crystal Palace has generated some of the best — and worst — numbers in the league. The Eagles have only mustered 4.8 expected goals, which is second to last among 20 teams. On the defensive side, they’ve been much better with 5.8 expected goals against. That stat line is so good it’s better 12 of the 14 clubs ahead Crystal Palace in the table.
Add everything together and I think Vieira’s men are due for some positive performances. The only question is whether or not it starts against Brighton. Will the team suffered the Liverpool rout show up or will it be the group that dominated Spurs two games back? I’m leaning toward the latter.
Brighton Flips Script After Forgettable Season
There are several Action Network soccer analysts (including me) who have found Brighton utterly fascinating, yet extremely perplexing over the course of the past two seasons. Yet, the overall belief of the group is that this crew could be destined for a big season if just a little bit of luck came its way.
Needless to say, the Seagulls have delivered the goods up to this point. Now, they’re just 90 minutes and a win from moving into first place. Manager Graham Potter has worked his magic with his side, which finished in the bottom five last season despite having some of the league’s gaudiest metrics.
When it comes to this season, Brighton has gotten the results despite producing some more bizarre stats. The Seagulls sit on a paltry 5.4 xG, which is fourth worst in the entire league. Defensively, they’ve been a fortress in the back, though, conceding just 5.9 xGA that’s fourth best among 20 teams.
Bottom line, if Potter’s lads can pick up the pace offensively and generate more scoring chances while maintaining its defensive prowess, this could be a club that can contend for spot in next season’s European competitions.
Betting Analysis & Pick
This showdown really has the makings of being a knock-down, drag-out battle. Past M23 derbies have been beyond lit, so I’m expecting much of the same this time around with so much on the line.
History also tells us there hasn’t been a shortage of goals in these affairs, which has led me to backing both teams to score at +100 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. Brighton and Crystal Palace have scored in seven of the last eight meetings, including both of last season’s matches.
If you needed even more evidence to support that betting angle, you should take these key stats into consideration:
- Crystal Palace has yielded at least one goal in eight of their last nine league matches.
- The Seagulls have conceded at least one goal in eight consecutive meetings with the Eagles.
I’m finding value in Crystal Palace to strike first in this game at +125 odds as a complimentary wager. The Eagles have opened the scoring three games in a row versus the Seagulls, so let’s see if that make it four in a row.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (+100)
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