D.C. United vs. New York Red Bulls Odds, Picks, Prediction: Sunday MLS Betting Preview (July 25)

D.C. United vs. New York Red Bulls Odds, Picks, Prediction: Sunday MLS Betting Preview (July 25) article feature image
Credit:

Ira L. Black – Corbis/Getty Images. Pictured: New York Red Bulls standout Caden Clark.

  • D.C. United goes up against the New York Red Bulls in Sunday's Major League Soccer action.
  • Caden Clark and Cristian Casseres Jr. lead New York, which is a slight road underdog.
  • Ian Quillen analyzes the match and explains where he finds the most betting value.

D.C. United vs. RBNY Odds

D.C. United Odds +112
RBNY Odds +225
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-107 / -122)
Day | Time Sunday | 8 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings.

Managers Hernan Losada and Gerhard Struber get their first taste of the original Major League Soccer derby when D.C. United hosts the New York Red Bulls on Sunday in an Atlantic Cup fixture.

Losada (D.C. United) and Struber (RBNY) might see reflections of their own teams in each other entering this contest. Both clubs started slowly in April and May before picking up steam.

And each squad places a high emphasis on pressure and transition, albeit with slightly different principles.

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Manager Losada Brings Excitement to D.C. United

Losada came to D.C United preaching high risks and rewards after installing a similar style in his previous job as the manager at Beerschot in Belgium.

While Losada left before the season finished, Beerschot finished ninth in the 2020-21 table. However, it scored the third-most goals in the Juliper League (58) and conceded the second-most (64) during the campaign.

Turns out that style took a while to arrive in the nation’s capital. Through D.C United’s first 10 matches, only 20 combined goals were scored. Then the floodgates opened in the form of 18 goals in the last 360 minutes of play.

Part of that owes to the improved health of a squad whose rank of injured players grew into double figures early in the year. And some of it likely reflected a more basic adjustment period to a significantly different way of playing than under former manager Ben Olsen.

Just four days after an intensely physical 2-1 defeat at Philadelphia last weekend, D.C. United rallied from two goals down late in a 2-2 draw at Chicago on Wednesday. Yet, the price might be an absentee list that is growing again.

Center back Brendan Hines-Ike was recently placed on the season-ending injury list, plus forward Adrien Perez is out three months with a foot surgery.

Winger Paul Arriola and center back Donovan Pines are with the U.S. national team at the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Five other players are listed as questionable, including two of Wednesday’s starters: forward Nigel Robertha and defender Andy Najar.

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Balanced Offensive Attack Guiding New York

Some looked at the New York roster coming into the season and wondered where the goals would come from. The answer? A little bit of everywhere.

Caden Clark and Cristian Casseres Jr. each have four goals. Patryk Klimala has three in nine appearances, and Fabio has two goals and six assists. New York’s 18 goals overall in 13 games is a respectable tally. If there’s room to grow, it’s in turning good offensive performances to great ones.

The Red Bulls have yet to score more than twice in a single match, though they’ve conceded three goals on three separate occasions.

Struber is managing some longer-term injuries on his roster, but few new ones. Defender Sean Nealis is questionable with a thigh issue.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If even teams met on a short week and a bookmaker offered you +112 odds on the home team, you might be right to take it.

Entering the weekend, MLS hosts were winning roughly 48.4% of their matches. And +112 odds signal an implied 47.2% probability. The problem is this isn’t a meeting of clubs who are actually even, but teams that appear so.

The Red Bulls have played nine foes that entered Sunday holding a playoff spot in their 13 games. They’ve earned 10 points in those nine games, including eight points in four matches against non-playoff opponents.

D.C. United has played eight teams holding playoff spots in its 14 matches, earning only four points. The club picked up 14 points in those six games against non-playoff foes, including 10 in four matches combined against Chicago and Inter Miami — the two bottom teams in the East.

New York’s poor road record is also a bit of a mirage since it has earned points in three consecutive away matches. Not to mention five of their seven away contests have come against teams in the top 10 in the Supporters’ Shield race.

The visitors are also the healthier and better-rested side. This is only their second game in five days, not a third in nine like D.C United.

I’m not a mathematician, but intuitively, I think there’s a considerably better than 57.8% chance New York earns at least a point against a banged up D.C. United side that has mostly feasted on the worst of the conference.

That’s the implied probability of playing a Double Chance wager on RBNY or Draw at -137 odds.

Pick: Double Chance — RBNY or Draw (-137)

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