England vs. Germany Odds, Picks, Predictions for Euro 2020: Can English Defense Hold Up? (June 29)

England vs. Germany Odds, Picks, Predictions for Euro 2020: Can English Defense Hold Up? (June 29) article feature image
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Pictured: Bukayo Saka (r) by Harry Kane, Jesse Lingard.

  • England and Germany will face off on Tuesday afternoon as the Euro 2020 Round of 16 wraps up (12 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Neither team lived up to expectations in group play, but the English side did win Group D while scoring just twice. Germany narrowly advanced out of the "Group of Death" despite winning just once.
  • Matt Trebby breaks down his England vs. Germany pick below.

England vs. Germany Odds

England Odds -130
Germany Odds +110
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+108 / -130)
Day | Time Tuesday | 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds updated Tuesday morning via DraftKings.

The final day of the Round of 16 at Euro 2020 begins with a bang when England hosts Germany on Tuesday at Wembley Stadium.

Neither team was convincing in the opening stage, although England topped Group D with seven points. Meanwhile, Germany earned just four points in the “Group of Death,” losing to France, then dominating Portugal before needing late heroics to draw against Hungary in Group F action.

Star power will be on display in the London and the host is favored, likely because of its winning run. Let’s break down who has the edge.

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England’s Approach: Defense Wins Championships

Let’s get the English defense out of the way. Harry Maguire and John Stones have proven a capable pairing, both coming off strong seasons on either side of Manchester, while the same could be said of Kyle Walker and Luke Shaw at fullback.

With how manager Gareth Southgate has been lining his side up, those four  players, along with defensive midfielders Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips provide plenty of cover in the back. It’s clear the priority is to keep the clean sheet. That was the case at the 2018 World Cup, and despite the impressive attacking talent in the squad, it remains the main approach at this tournament.

Now, about that attack.

Coming into the tournament, everything went through Mason Mount, who operated as England’s No. 10. Mount and teammate Ben Chillwell just rejoined England after having to isolate due to COVID-19 restrictions, but it seems unlikely Mount starts against Germany.

England is coming off a 1-0 win that saw it have to change without Mount. Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling retained their starting places, while Jack Grealish and Bukayo Saka entered the starting XI. Grealish operated in Mount’s place. It was a similar start to England’s 1-0 win over Croatia, except it turned its early dominance into a goal. That was it, though, as the Three Lions only registered 1.54 expected goals.

Like the 2018 World Cup, England has a very favorable draw if it’s able to get past Germany. Southgate will no doubt feel the emphasis will be placed on defense, while having enough trust in his attack to create enough to win.

It might not be sexy or how England fans want their national team to play, but Southgate’s men have shown they’re more than capable of getting the job done.

Roller-Coaster Ride Continues for Germany

What a bizarre tournament it has been so far for Germany.

After being thoroughly contained in a 1-0 loss to France, Germany smashed Portugal, 4-1, and was in position to potentially win Group F. Instead, the Germans conceded an early goal against Hungary, then needed a goal from Leon Goretzka late in the match for a 2-2 draw. A win over Hungary would have put Germany ahead of France and Portugal in the group standings.

Germany’s 3-4-3 formation is tough to judge. On paper, it provides defensive stability and gets wingbacks Robin Gosens, who has a minor virus that manager Joachim Löw said he hoped would pass before Tuesday, and Joshua Kimmich into very dangerous positions.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Goretzka take an injured lkay Gündoğan’s starting place in midfield. It looks like Thomas Müller will be fit to start alongside Serge Gnabry and Kai Havertz going forward.

Playing at Wembley, Germany’s goal should be to avoid an early deficit. In their three group games, the Germans conceded in the 20th, 15th and 11th minute. That’s not an encouraging trend given England’s hot starts, although it has faded as games have progressed.

Mats Hummels was supposed to provide a veteran presence in the center of the German back three, but has been exposed at times for his lack of pace. His main task will be to mark Harry Kane, who it would seem is due for a goal after three consecutive below-average performances. Although, Kane isn’t known for his pace, he could be a good matchup for Hummels.

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Germany vs. England Pick

Both teams have massive potential, but are yet to unlock it. England has been unconvincing at this tournament against lesser opposition than Germany, although the Germans have faced two of the best teams in the world and were neck and neck with both.

England has only lost twice since the return of international play in September 2020, falling to Denmark and Belgium. The Three Lions won all but one game since that Nov. 15 defeat to the Belgians (the draw against Scotland in the group stages) and seem to have a knack for finding ways to win under Southgate.

People who have read my comments about England will be shocked to see I’m picking it, but neither team has been hugely convincing and the host has shown a penchant for getting results. I’ll back the Three Lions to win in regulation time.

Pick: England ML (+150)

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