Bundesliga Odds & Picks: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. Schalke Betting Preview for Wednesday
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- Michael Leboff previews Fortuna Dusseldorf vs. FC Schalke, featuring betting odds for Wednesday's Bundesliga match.
- Leboff highlights the squad he's betting on the moneyline and explains his pick.
Schalke at Fortuna Dusseldorf Odds
|Fortuna Dusseldorf odds||+165
|Time||2:30 p.m. ET|
Wednesday’s showdown between Schalke (eighth place, 37 points) and Fortuna Dusseldorf (16th place, 24 points) does not have the makings of a blockbuster. Not only are these two of the worst attacks in the Bundesliga, but neither Schalke nor Dusseldorf have collected a win since Germany’s top division resumed play.
Schalke has been particularly dreadful since the restart, losing both matches by a combined score of 7-0. The expected goals models suggest that the scorelines are a bit harsh on Schalke, but Die Knappen were deserved losers in both matches.
Dusseldorf hasn’t looked particularly sharp since resuming play, either. The Rheinlanders snoozed out a 0-0 draw against last-place Paderborn in their first match back and then were lucky to earn a 2-2 tie against Koln on Sunday.
In short, it’s been tough sledding for both of these teams since the Bundesliga resumed play:
|Expected Goals For||1.06||1.49|
|Expected Goals Against||2.95||2.89|
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
One look at the statistical profiles for these two teams and it’s easy to see why the total was set so low. Dusseldorf is tied with Werder Bremen for the fewest goals this season and no team has created fewer expected goals than Wednesday’s hosts. Schalke isn’t that far behind in either regard, as Die Knappen have scored the fifth-fewest goals and have generated the third-fewest xGF on the season.
With two colorless offenses meeting, a play on the under 2.5 seems to make a lot of sense, but I can’t trust Dusseldorf’s defense to get that bet to the window. Just as they do on offense, Dusseldorf rank dead last in the Bundesliga in expected goals against. Somehow, the team with the worst offense and the worst defense in the league is not in an automatic relegation spot. That’s quite impressive, to be honest.
It’s hard to trust Schalke considering their current nine-match winless streak, but Dusseldorf is the worst team in the Bundesliga, even if the standings tell us otherwise. Home-field advantage has been severely muted since the Bundesliga has started back up so I see no reason why the odds should be this tight.
I’ll take Schalke at any number above +160.
The Bet: Schalke +170