Fulham vs Chelsea Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

Fulham vs Chelsea Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview article feature image

Darren Walsh/Getty. Pictured: Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount.

  • Fulham will take on Chelsea in a London Premier League derby match.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the odds, his pick and his best bet.
  • Read on for his full analysis and match preview.

Fulham vs. Chelsea Odds

Thursday, Jan. 12
3 p.m. ET
Fulham Odds+300
Chelsea Odds+100
Over/Under2.5 (+105 / -145)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-115 / -125)
Odds via BetMGM. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Chelsea look to stop their slide when they return to Premier League action on Thursday in a derby clash at a Fulham side in their best form in recent memory.

The Blues have lost six of their last nine across all competitions and four of their last six in the Premier League to pile the pressure on manager Graham Potter. Most recently, they dropped back-to-back matches to Manchester City, 1-0 at home in the league, followed by a 4-0 thumping away in the FA Cup third round.

Fulham have won four in a row in all competitions in their return from the World Cup break. However, this will be a major step in class from anyone they faced over that stretch that included three lower-half league foes and an FA Cup win against Hull City of the League Championship.

The good news for Chelsea is they've dominated this fixture of late, winning the last seven league meetings. Fulham's last league win came nearly 17 full years ago, 1-0 at home in March of 2006 on a goal from Luis Boa Morte.

Fulham Missing Key Striker

It's difficult to disaggregate Fulham's campaign from that of Serbian striker Aleksandr Mitrovic, who is having a career year on the Premiership level. It throws a bit of a wrench into handicapping this one since he will be serving a card accumulation suspension

"Mitro" has 11 EPL goals, equalling his career high at the top-flight level after he pounded in 43 in the League Championship last year. Despite an injury that briefly sidelined him before his trip to Qatar, he hasn't missed a beat in his return, scoring twice in three matches.

This will be the fourth EPL game Mitrovic has missed. Fulham lost the other three, but two of those were against teams above Fulham in the table.

There's more to Fulham than a striker in his prime, including two key American contributors. Center back Tim Ream's form has been so good that he played his way into being a U.S. national team starter despite being left out of much of World Cup Qualifying.

Left back Antonee Robinson has made 16 starts in the league, though he's less of an attacking weapon on the club level than he is in international play.

It's true Fulham's recent run of form has come against lower-caliber opponents, but they've held their own against the big boys, losing by one goal to Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.

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Chelsea Need to Improve With Easier Schedule

For all the talk of Chelsea's spiral, what's easy to lose sight of is the unwieldy difficulty of their recent run of matches.

While 10th in the table is an unusually low position for a club of Chelsea's pedigree, their last six defeats have come against teams above them in the table. That includes three against second-place City and one each to league leaders Arsenal and third-place Newcastle United.

Perhaps there is a bit of an element of exaggeration — or at least unusual circumstance — to this recent swoon under Potter, who was appointed to replace Thomas Tuchel in early September.

On the other hand, Chelsea's injury list is one of the lengthier ones in the Premier League. And team co-leading scorer Raheem Sterling is among those expected to be out for Thursday's clash.

And even going back before this recent slide, this is a Chelsea side that hasn't been very good outside of Stamford Bridge. They've only won three league fixtures on the road, and had fallen to the likes of Southampton and Leeds United earlier in the season.

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Fulham vs. Chelsea Pick

It's rare that the absence of one player should significantly shift betting strategy, but in the case of Fulham's Mitrovic, it has to. It's enough reason to stay away from the three-way line, when otherwise all the signs would be pointing to the Cottagers as an undervalued home underdog.

But where "Mitro's" absence ruins value in one market, it probably adds to value in another.

Silva's Fulham still attempt to play attack-minded football when Mitrovic is absent, but their ability to score goals in bunches appears to fade; they've scored exactly once in all three games he's missed, which all finished as losses.

Meanwhile, Chelsea have had trouble scoring in general lately. They haven't scored more than three in any competition this season. The players expected to be out to injury have accounted for seven of their 20 EPL goals.

While you should still expect a couple of goals in this, the idea of the total going in the territory of four-plus is pretty unlikely. That's why I like a multi-goal wager on the total hitting 2 or 3 goals at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% implied probability.

It's a wager that has hit exactly 50% of the time between Chelsea away matches and Fulham home fixtures. In Fulham's case, three of the four times it missed were games with four or more goals, an unlikely event with Mitrovic out.

Pick: Multi-Goal Band, 2 or 3 goals (+105)

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