Inter Miami vs. Montreal MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: How to Back the Visitors (July 31)

Inter Miami vs. Montreal MLS Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: How to Back the Visitors (July 31) article feature image
Credit:

Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Djordje Mihailovic.

  • Inter Miami host Montreal on Saturday afternoon in a battle of two Eastern Conference squads.
  • Miami are winless in seven straight contests while Montreal are 0-2 on their current road trip.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and explains why he thinks the visitors have value.

Inter Miami vs. Montreal Odds

Inter Miami Odds +115
Montreal Odds +225
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 8 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday night via DraftKings.

Inter Miami hosts Montreal on Saturday night looking to avoid the embarrassment of a season sweep. 

Montreal won the two previous meetings — a 2-0 triumph interrupted by severe weather in South Florida back in May and a 1-0 victory played in northern New Jersey earlier this month.

Both were technically Montreal home matches. They were forced to play their early schedule entirely in the U.S. because of the pandemic.

Montreal return to South Florida in search of their first points in the finale of a three-match road trip.

Miami are winless in their last seven, though they snapped a six-match losing run with a 1-1 home draw against the Philadelphia Union at home on Sunday.

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Inter Miami’s Winless Streak Grows

Miami’s draw against Philadelphia marked a drastic improvement from a 5-0 midweek thrashing at the hands of a heavily rotated New England Revolution side.

Not only were the goals even against the Union, but manager Phil Neville’s side matched the defending Supporters’ Shield holders in chance creation and expected goal (xG).

Goal-scorer Robbie Robinson was at the heart of that with a season-high five shots in his third game back from a hamstring injury.

Even so, Miami couldn’t avoid another lapse in a season of them, conceding an 85th-minute equalizer to Kacper Przybylko.

That may have felt cruel for the home fans, but in the big picture Miami’s results have been deserved. They have failed to create more xG than their opponents in all seven matches of their winless run.

Midfielder Rodolfo Pizarro remains away with the Mexico national team after joining the CONCACAF Gold Cup squad ahead of the quarterfinals.

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Montreal Search For Momentous Win

For a Montreal side with low expectations entering 2021, even their two recent defeats have been impressive.

Montreal fell 1-0 at New York City FC and 2-1 at New England, two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.

And they were particularly unfortunate in Foxborough, dropping all three points despite leading New England 1.47 to 0.87 in xG.

Their resilience after going two down was nonetheless impressive, with Djordje Mihailovic pulling a goal back in the 79th minute and the visitors creating a flurry of late chances in the final minutes.

If they can earn a result to close their trip, it would be a major momentum boost ahead of more matches back in Canada.

The league announced all three of its Canadian teams would be permitted to host its remaining matches back at its home stadium this week.

Honduras have been eliminated from the Gold Cup, but striker Romell Quioto remains out with a hamstring injury he picked up on international duty.

Betting Analysis & Pick

If Miami’s match against Philadelphia was a referendum on the direction of the club, we might need a recount.

The performance was decidedly improved and suggested some resiliency. Yet it wasn’t enough to earn three points or even credibly claim hard luck over the result.

Now they face the challenge of building from it in a season where they’ve shown almost zero ability to string together back-to-back positive performances. 

Montreal have yet to concede a goal to Miami and have also won the xG battle by more than a full goal in both previous meetings. A reversal is certainly possible, but Miami’s modest improvement against Philadelphia alone isn’t evidence that one is coming.

Since the visitors generally don’t score a ton of goals, I’m playing Montreal +0.5 on an Asian Handicap wager at -137 odds and an implied 57.8% implied probability.

That bet earns you a payout with a Montreal win or draw. And without an obvious sign a Miami turnaround is coming, those are the only outcomes you can reasonably expect.

Pick: Montreal +0.5 (-137)

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