USMNT at Jamaica Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Reggae Boyz Will Put Up Fight vs. United States

USMNT at Jamaica Updated Odds, Pick, Prediction: Reggae Boyz Will Put Up Fight vs. United States article feature image
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John Dorton/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States star Christian Pulisic.

  • Updated USMNT at Jamaica odds for Tuesday afternoon's match list the Americans as -125 favorites, with the total at 2.5 but juiced heavily to the under.
  • The Americans opened as an even bigger favorite but have been bet down from -175, where they were on Monday afternoon.
  • Ian Quillen thinks Jamaica can hang tough and is betting its team total as a result.

United States at Jamaica Odds

Jamaica Odds +360
USA Odds -125
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+125 / -175)
Day | Time Tuesday | 5 p.m. ET
Location Kingston, Jamaica
How To Watch Paramount+ | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM, updated on Tuesday afternoon. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

After easily its biggest win of the FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign, the United States heads to Jamaica on Tuesday looking to avoid a trap game.

The Americans were excellent in their 2-0 win over Mexico last Friday. They dominated most of the way, and Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie scored late to seal three points in the CONCACAF Octagonal match.

The same night, Jamaica settled for a 1-1 draw at El Salvador. Alex Roldan leveled for the hosts in the 90th minute after Michail Antonio’s first international goal eight minutes prior.

The United States’ previously defeated Jamaica, 2-0, in a comfortable qualifying win in Austin a month ago.

Antonio, Bailey Giving Jamaica Plenty of Hope

The Reggae Boyz might be seven points back of the three automatic qualifying spots. However, there’s reason not to rule them out yet.

Premier League stars Leon Bailey and Michail Antonio made only their first and second qualifying appearances in Friday’s contest Antonio came off the bench to score his 82nd-minute goal, meaning he could start in this game.

A combination of injuries, pandemic restrictions and travel logistics hindered both from appearing in earlier games, including against the U.S. Additionally, Jamaica have played five of their first seven matches away, earning a respectable five points.

It’s at home where they must improve after scoreless performances in a draw to Canada and a shock defeat to Panama. Even there, things are looking brighter. The Reggae Boyz played their first two home qualifiers before an empty stadium. They’ll see 5,000 vaccinated fans allowed to Independence Park for this showdown.

Bailey has yet to play on home soil. Antonio came on as a late sub in the loss to Panama, which has been his only other international appearance.

Recent Jamaica vs. USA Results

*Head-to-head record last 8 meetings: 6-2-0 (W-L-D)

DATE RESULT
Oct. 7, 2021 U.S, Jamaica 0
July 25, 2021 U.S. 1, Jamaica 0
March 25, 2021 U.S. 4, Jamaica 1
July 3, 2019 U.S. 3, Jamaica 1 (OT)
June 5, 2019 Jamaica 1, U.S. 0
July 26, 2017 U.S. 2, Jamaica 1
Feb. 3, 2017 U.S. 1, Jamaica 0
July 27, 2015 Jamaica 2, U.S. 1

USMNT Celebrates Victory, But New Task at Hand

The mood was downright celebratory in Cincinnati on Friday night after a masterful, important performance. However, the Americans would be well served to remember how well they opened the October window and what followed in the second game.

After comfortably beating Jamaica, manager Gregg Berhalter’s side gave their worst qualifying performance in a 1-0 loss to Panama. It was a deserved result, with Los Canaleros scoring on a corner kick and besting the U.S. on executed goals via a 0.88-0.22 margin in defeat.

Like then, Berhalter’s roster situation is complicated heading to Kingston. In addition to all the absences he circumvented Friday, defender Miles Robinson and midfielder Weston McKennie will be serving one-match suspensions.

Robinson was sent off late in the Mexico win, while McKennie picked up his second yellow card of the cycle.

Without those players, it’s going to be extraordinarily tempting to start Pulisic. The Chelsea star immediately gave the Americans an extra gear Friday, and it’s little surprise he scored the winner in his 22-minute shift.

Between club and country, the Chelsea star has played 45 minutes total in his first three appearances since an injury suffered in September in a match against Honduras.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Handicapping CONCACAF can be perilous, because the teams are fluid and the sample sizes are small. Yet, sometimes the odds just blatantly lean too heavily to one side.

That’s the case here, with the Americans as odds-on away favorites on the three-way moneyline. No, I don’t expect the U.S. to collapse and fail to qualify for 2022 in Qatar. However, I also don’t think Friday’s win magically turned them into a consistently dominant group, especially away from home.

And the losses of McKennie and Robinson are big, with the latter arguably the Americans’ most consistent performer this cycle. Throw in Jamaica’s new stars and it’s extremely tempting to back them for the upset.

Yet, while Whitmore has done an excellent job recruiting eligible players, I don’t trust his managing. So, there’s better value backing his side to perform well without necessarily picking up points.

That has me playing Jamaica’s team total over 0.5 goals at -115 odds, with an implied 53.5% probability.

The U.S. has conceded on two of their three previous away trips without encountering Premier League-level attackers. Jamaica’s overall depth is also better than Panama, Honduras and El Salvador, even if its record isn’t.

And the Reggae Boyz have scored in their last four home qualifiers against the Americans. Yes, this is a deeper U.S. squad, but it’s also a deeper Jamaican side as well.

To add prop value, you might want to back Jamaica to score first (+225) or win the first half (+475) for some additional wagering interests. However, the talent of Pulisic in particular and the Americans overall make me more confident in the team total play.

Pick: Jamaica — Team Total Over 0.5 Goals (-115)

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