EPL Odds, Pick: Leicester City vs Everton on Monday, May 1
Mike Egerton/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: James Maddison of Leicester City.
- Leicester City and Everton clash on Monday in a compelling relegation fight.
- Leicester's attacking talent has recently taken center stage, but can you trust their defense to hold up?
- Soccer betting analyst Ian Quillen previews Leicester City vs Everton, including odds, predictions and his betting pick for Monday's match.
Leicester City vs Everton Odds
Leicester City Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105 / -135)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-120 / -110)|
|Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
The relegation fight takes center stage on Monday when Leicester City hosts Everton.
Leicester drew fellow relegation rivals Leeds United 1-1 on the road last Tuesday, rallying from one goal down to earn a precious point … only to find themselves back in the relegation zone after other results on the weekend.
They’re still one point in front of Everton after the Toffees’ 4-1 home defeat to Newcastle United, and only one back of Nottingham Forest after the Trees gave back an early lead in a 2-1 loss at Brentford on Saturday.
Leicester earned a 2-0 win over Everton at Goodison Park back in early November. That began a stretch of eight losses in nine games in all competitions for the Toffees, and the first of four straight wins in all comps for the Foxes.
Both teams have since swapped managers, but the Foxes’ change came only three games ago when Dean Smith took over for Brendan Rodgers.
Similar to West Ham, there was always a sense this Leicester squad was performing well below their talent level in getting dragged into a relegation fight. The early results under Smith certainly support the claim.
The Foxes have only taken four points from those three matches, but they’ve created more than 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each game and averaged a +0.9 xG differential per 90 minutes in those three matches.
That sample size is too small to conclusively prove that Smith has instantly improved how Leicester play, but it certainly supports the idea.
After a bright start to life under incoming manager Sean Dyche, the Toffees have hit another barren stretch, going 0-3-3 (W-L-D) in their last six league games.
Part of that is probably the schedule. Everton have faced three top-six sides in their last six games, which accounts for two of their defeats in that stretch.
But the Toffees have also been their own worst enemy — going down a man while they were arguably the better side in draws at home to Spurs and away to Crystal Palace. Spurs also went down to 10 in the very late moments before Michael Keane equalized to give Everton a 1-1 result.
Oft-injured striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been healthy and started Everton’s last two matches, but he hasn’t been able to contribute to his side’s league-worst total of 25 goals scored.
Leicester City vs Everton Pick
As with any match between two teams that have changed coaching regimes, it’s more important to suss out who each team is in the moment rather than who they’ve been during the whole season.
Leicester appears to finally be creating chances consistently with the breadth of their attacking talent on offer. Everton have defended resolutely and shown spirit since the swap, but — on the road in particular — they struggle to prevent multiple goals once they allow a first.
For all the talk of Dyche’s defensive tactics, the Toffees have conceded twice in four of their five away fixtures since he took over. That includes games at fellow relegation battlers Nottingham Forest and a Chelsea side that haven’t attacked anyone well this year.
The Foxes have created 2.0 xG or more in their three games under Smith — and also in three of their four previous home games against sides currently in the bottom seven.
Leicester should also win this one if they play to their capabilities. But given their defensive inconsistencies, I think the team total over 1.5 goals has a lot more value than the moneyline — even against Everton’s meek attack.
Pick: Leicester City team total over 1.5 goals (+115) · Caesars
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