Ligue 1 Odds, Picks, Prediction & Best Bets: PSG vs. Marseille Betting Preview (April 17)

Ligue 1 Odds, Picks, Prediction & Best Bets: PSG vs. Marseille Betting Preview (April 17) article feature image

Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Marseille standout Dimitri Payet.

  • PSG welcomes Marseille to Parc des Princes for Sunday's Ligue 1 showdown.
  • The Parisians have a massive lead in the French top flight, but analyst Avery Zimmerman has found value on the visitors.
  • Check out below why he's back Marseille to get a result.

PSG vs. Marseille Odds

PSG Odds-275
Marseille Odds+675
Over/Under3.5 (+100 / -140)
Day | TimeSunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
How To WatchbeIN SPORTS | fuboTV
Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The two teams in Ligue 1 take the pitch Sunday in a clash that has plenty of meaning despite the league being all but mathematically decided. 

Paris Saint-Germain sits in first in the French top flight with 71 points, while Marseille is in a distant second place with 59 points. With just seven games remaining in the season, this is a crucial fixture, particularly for Les Olympiens.

So, do have any shot at notching an upset result in this match? Let's dive into it and see where we cam find some betting value.

PSG Putting Finishing Touches on Title

While the Parisians might have crashed out of Europe, they're cruising to their fourth league title in a five-year span.

The trophy isn't officially in the hands of PSG, but it may as well be. The club currently sits in first with a 12-point advantage, so even a massive collapse wouldn't really allow the Parisians to let their grip on the league slip away.

However, that has also resulted in a bit of a drop in intensity at the club. It’s not necessarily in the performances, but this isn't a team targeting league titles at this point. Those are expected, but European glory is the true goal.

PSG wasn't able to accomplish that or even itself in a position to accomplish that goal, so this final push won't have the same feel as if the Parisians were still competing in Europe.

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Marseille Looking For Result In UCL Fight

The situation isn't as clear for a Marseille team just looking to find its way back to the Champions League.

In France, the top two positions in the league result in automatic UCL qualification, but a third-place finish would only slot Marseille through to the qualifying stage of the competition.

Les Olympiens are three points clear of Rennes with a game in hand, so a loss to PSG would be far from catastrophic, but a tie or a win would offer some useful breathing room.

Only one team has gone into Paris and gotten a point this year, but Marseille has been one of the best road sides in the league, so the task isn't impossible.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Lionel Messi and PSG have been dominant at the Parc des Princes this year, but if any team is capable of finding a result there, it’s this Marseille side.

Les Olympiens have a 0.41 expected-goal differential/game away from home, while PSG is only 0.34 xG better at home at 0.75 overall. In all reality, the Parisians’ results have outdone their performances, and though fading they might have been frustrating a lot of the time, it's hard to argue against it.

Getting 1.5 goals for a team that’s one of the most solid on the road in Europe is an offer too good to turn down in this situation.

Pick: Marseille +1.5 (-115)

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