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Man City vs Crystal Palace Updated Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction

Man City vs Crystal Palace Updated Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction article feature image

Michael Regan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City goalkeeper Ederson.

Man City vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Man City Odds -600
Crystal Palace Odds +1500
Draw +600
Over/Under 2.5 (+112 / -136)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City dropped points for the first time in the new Premier League season in a thrilling 3-3 road draw against Newcastle United last weekend. So, now the reigning EPL champion will be out for revenge Saturday when it faces Crystal Palace after the latter won this fixture via a 2-0 shutout last season.

The Eagles closed as a +2000 underdogs in this meeting last season, but true to their 2021-22 form as an excellent foil for the top six sides, they stole points off a top side. Palace grabbed a goal on the counterattack, went up a man after a red card and saw out the 2-0 victory for the biggest upset of the campaign.

Manager Patrick Vieira and the Eagles lost their season opener to Arsenal at Selhurst Park, but followed it up with two great performances in a 1-1 draw at Liverpool and a 3-1 win against Aston Villa last Saturday.

There will be plenty of attack-and-defend type action in this match, but Palace’s strong defense and countering ability gives it value in this matchup as a multiple-goal underdog.

Manchester City

Manchester City saw some weaknesses exposed last time out when Newcastle found plenty of joy up the wing through Allan Saint-Maximin. The Cityzens like to tuck in their full backs — Joao Cancelo and Kyle Walker — and play them as pseudo midfielders.

If you’re as bold as Newcastle was and keep a player like Saint-Maximin high and wide, plus have enough ball winning and carrying among your defensive midfield and center backs, it can be an effective counterattacking strategy.

Palace can hurt City through a similar plan through Wilfried Zaha and Eberechi Eze. Manager Pep Guardiola will be sure to make some adjustments that will hurt City’s ball-progression machine and sacrifice some numbers on attack.

The result will be the Eagles defending deeper and the Cityzens exercising their slow build-up strategy to suffocate possession and opponents. The challenge will be trying to spring Erling Haaland in behind for clear scoring opportunities, even while teams are sure to come to Etihad Stadium playing as deep as possible to limit his explosiveness.

By The Numbers

  • 16.89 — City’s average pass-sequence time, which is five seconds longer than every other team in the Premier League.
  • 9 — Haaland managed this number of shots in the two matches away from home, but just two in his first at Etihad Stadium against lowly Bournemouth.
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Crystal Palace

Given its early strength of schedule, Palace only conceding 4.0 xGA through three matches is impressive. When you consider Arsenal’s dominance of its last two foes, the fact the Eagles played them about even should serve as some encouragement for Vieira’s side. They look like another top seven-eight defensive side, which is just as good as the lower half of the EPL “Big Six.”

Dating back to last season, Palace conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances, fifth-fewest box entries and fourth-lowest non-penalty xG per 90 minutes. No one can truly stop the Cityzens’ ball-progression machine, but the Eagles did upgrade their defensive midfield with the signing of Cheick Doucoure. He provides some ball winning and will be critical in marking the frequent runs of Ilkay Gundogan and Kevin de Bruyne into the penalty area.

Palace had trouble coping with City last year in the second meeting because of its lack of a true ball winner, but the latter was unable to finish any of its scoring opportunities and settled for a 0-0 draw despite having 2.3 xG overall.

By The Numbers

  • — Number of points Crystal Palace earned against Manchester City last season, as it took points off four of the six Big Six clubs.
  • 1.9 — Total xG created by the Eagles in the two meetings, showing they can threaten on the counterattack.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Crystal Palace probably won’t win or even get a result in this match, but it’s too good to be catching two or more full goals against anyone. Just two weeks ago, the Eagles were two-goal underdogs against mostly healthy Liverpool and now they’re an equally big underdog against Manchester City.

Whether Zaha finds success in transition up the wing or not, Palace’s direct attack can expose some flaws in City’s back line. The Cityzens’ slow build-up play will run into some issues easily breaking down the Eagles’ improved defensive block.

My projections have Crystal Palace as consistently the most underrated team in the league, so I will keep betting it while I believe this is the case.

The Pick: Crystal Palace +2 (-110)

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