Manchester City vs. FC Copenhagen Betting Preview: Blowout in City’s Final UCL Group Fixture

Manchester City vs. FC Copenhagen Betting Preview: Blowout in City’s Final UCL Group Fixture article feature image

Photo by Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Erling Haaland (Man City)

Man City vs. Copenhagen Odds

Man City Odds-2000
Copenhagen Odds+4000
Over/Under3.5 (-165 / +120)
Day | TimeWednesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchTV | Paramount+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Group G leaders Manchester City meet heavy underdogs FC Copenhagen Wednesday at the Etihad for its third UCL group fixture.

The Cityzens have accumulated six points from the following wins over Sevilla and Borussia Dortmund, while Copenhagen earned a point on Matchday Two against Sevilla to sit third in the group.

These sides last met in the 2009 UEFA Cup, with City earning a 2-1 home result against the Danish outfit.

Man City Looking Strong Behind Haaland

Led by new signing Erling Haaland, Manchester City have raced out to a strong start in all competitions.

The previous Champions League finalists have dropped points only twice in 10 Premier League and Champions League fixtures, and have won by multiple goals in seven of its eight wins this season.

The underlying metrics are strong with Wednesday's hosts, as well. In those same 10 matches, City has a +1.93 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential and has generated 2.64 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Defensively, the results are even more impressive. Manager Pep Guardiola's side has conceded only 0.71 xGOT per 90 minutes in those 10 matches and has only allowed one visiting foe to create more than one total expected goal.

Copenhagen Has Problems on Road

If Copenhagen is to pull an upset of biblical proportions, it will have to fix its road defensive record in a hurry.

On Matchday One at Borussia Dortmund, the German outfit pasted Copenhagen 3-0 while generating 2.57 xGOT and five big scoring chances.

Copenhagen did improve last week at home against Sevilla, conceding only 0.66 xGOT. But City is clearly a different animal.

Copenhagen's road struggles aren't just limited to the Champions League, too. In six domestic road fixtures, manager Jacob Neestrup's side is 2-4-0 (W-L-D) with a +0 big scoring chances differential and a -0.36 xGOT differential.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Don't overthink this game and don't try to be cute with it.

City are in a league of their own in this group and should dispatch Copenhagen with extreme ease. Across their past four Champions League home matches against teams that failed to advance past the group stage, City has a +2.18 xGDiff per 90 minutes and has won all four by at least three goals.

If you limit the sample to City's past six matches against teams outside the top-four UEFA leagues that failed to advance to the knockouts, they have a +2.35 xGDiff per 90 minutes and have won all but one of those six games by at least three goals.

Given how poor FC Copenhagen has played away from home this season, I expect it will get absolutely boat-raced Wednesday in Manchester.

Lay three-and-a-half goals with the hosts at +105 or better, or three goals at -130 or better.

The Pick: Manchester City Goal-Line (-3.5, +115) 

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