MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets for LA Galaxy vs. Seattle, New England vs NYCFC, More

After MLS plowed through the international break, Saturday should mark a return to normalcy as international players return to their club teams.

For the second straight weekend, the national TV cameras are focused on a sputtering LA Galaxy side that will be hosting the Seattle Sounders in a FOX clash in prime time on the East Coast.

Elsewhere, there are some intriguing matches with ramifications for a crowded Eastern Conference race — New England hosts NYCFC and Orlando hosts Nashville.

After a strong performance last weekend, let's dive into the best bets for the Matchday 6 slate.

MLS Odds & Picks

LA Galaxy vs. Seattle

In the past year-plus, Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez has become among the most important players to his team in all MLS. Unfortunately, he's expected to remain out Saturday against Seattle.

It will only be his seventh absence since the start of last season, but the numbers without him are clear: A 0-3-3 record (W-L-D) with four goals scored and nine conceded.

It's not just what Hernandez brings to the game, but how his presence balances the roster LA has constructed around him. Serbian striker Dejan Joveljic has scored at a far higher rate as a substitute. Riqui Puig has proven plenty capable as a midfield maestro, but far less so in supplying the end product.

Going back further, LA has scored multiple goals in only three of 10 home games without Chicharito since the start of the 2021 season. Overall, the Galaxy have only scored multiple goals five times in 19 games without Chicharito.

Seattle is much better defensively than they are given credit for and have been arguably the best team in the West this season. The Sounders became the first MLS team to win the Concacaf Champions League last year, but they paid a heavy price in injuries and fatigue and missed the playoffs for the first time in their MLS history.

If you acted early, you could've gotten the Sounders in the neighborhood of +260 odds on the moneyline. They might still present some value, but I'm more confident in backing them to keep the Galaxy to one or fewer goals at -125 odds and a 55.6% implied probability.

It's a wager that has cashed in seven of the past 10 Galaxy home games without Chicharito and most of those opponents didn't have a defense that included MLS Best XI caliber players like Joao Paulo and Yeimar Gomez.

Quillen's Pick: Galaxy Team Total Under 1.5 Goals (-125, Caesars)

Orlando vs Nashville

Orlando City had one of the best offseasons in MLS because they were able to acquire talent from multiple avenues — the international transfer market, their own academy, the MLS SuperDraft and so on.

And there's a big reason to believe they'll improve beyond their early MLS performances. Mainly, they spent the early weeks balancing Concacaf Champions League commitments and rotating their roster. After a bit of a CCL elimination hangover in a loss to Charlotte, Orlando City was a far more focused side and halted the longest active home unbeaten run with a 2-1 win over the Philadelphia Union last weekend.

Nashville SC still has much of the core that nearly played its way to a home playoff game in the Western Conference, but they could've been more active in supplementing that roster this offseason. Instead, the attack still relies too heavily on 2022 MLS MVP Hany Mukhtar to create and finish chances.

It makes sense Nashville would start the season in a better rhythm than other MLS clubs given the continuity, though we might be seeing regression after consecutive 1-0 losses to Cincinnati and New England.

Gary Smith's group is still plenty capable of grabbing a road win here, but if you believe these teams are about equal, and maybe that this version of Orlando is better, the price on the home side is too high.

I bet Orlando early at +150 odds, thinking this line would move. It hasn't much, and that means there's still a lot of value at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% probability.

The MLB home-win percentage is around 48% over the past two seasons. Even with a higher probability of a draw, given these teams don't score a ton, the home side probably has close to that 48% chance of securing a win here.

Quillen's Pick: Orlando City Moneyline (+145, Caesars)

The must-have app for Soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

New England vs NYCFC

Last year is last year and that's even more true for these clubs.

New England struggled to cope with the departures of multiple key players last year and by the time they found solutions, it was too late to mount a playoff run.

Meanwhile, New York City FC made a second straight run to the Eastern Conference final last season. However, this time around, they don't have a center forward to replace either of their best two options from last season.

Strikers Taty Castellanos and Heber are also only the start of key departures. Defender Alex Callens, goalkeeper Sean Johnson and midfielder Maxi Moralez fill out the list. And while City Football Group have an excellent personnel record in terms of restocking, this is clearly a transitional moment.

That means the Revs are just a better and more complete team now that Dylan Borrero and Bobby Wood have filled their biggest vacancies. And with 2021 MLS MVP Carles Gil appearing to survive an injury scare, they should be stronger favorites to win at home.

You can play them at +120 odds and an implied 45.5% probability in a league where the average home team wins almost half the time. I'd estimate their true win probability is closer to 51-52% here given the circumstances.

Quillen's Pick: New England Moneyline (+120, Caesars)