MLS Odds, Picks, Predictions: Best Bets For Seattle vs Portland & More

MLS rolls into June with match day 17 commencing on Saturday with a couple of big rivalry games.

The afternoon starts with NYCFC hosting the New England Revolution at Yankee Stadium. Then, the Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers meet for a nationally televised clash on FOX. Later, two Midwest foes convene on Saturday night when FC Cincinnati host the Chicago Fire.

Let's dive into our latest edition of MLS picks.

MLS Odds & Picks

NYCFC vs New England

The moneyline on a struggling NYCFC side certainly feels expensive, but the more obvious value here is on a high total.

New York City FC's home/away splits with respect to totals have continued into 2023, which makes sense given both their "home" pitches are among the smallest in the league. Between games at Citi Field and Yankee Stadium, the total has gone over 3.5 on four of seven occasions so far this year and over 2.5 on five of seven.

New England also trended toward higher totals on the road in 2022, and after some cagey early season games that trend appears to be materializing again, with totals coming in above 2.5 in five of eight games.

You could play the over anywhere from 2.5 goals to 3.5 goals and find value. I'm most comfortable at over 3 with +138 odds and an implied 42% probability. It's a wager with a record of 6-4-5 (W-L-D) in 15 games between NYCFC's home fixtures and New England's travels.

Quillen's Pick: Over 3 (+138 via BetRivers)

Seattle vs Portland

This moneyline opened in the neighborhood of -175 odds in favor of the Sounders and has moved in Portland's direction for reasons that are easy to understand.

Portland have won four in a row in the rivalry series. The Sounders have been drifting in general as they continue to navigate injuries. And Seattle also played midweek in a 1-0 home loss to San Jose.

But in this case, Seattle's quick turnaround may be a blessing in disguise. While they didn't score, the Sounders' attack looked as dynamic as good as it has in weeks, particularly once Raul Ruidiaz came in as a second-half substitute.

He could start or play the entire second half as he navigates back from a hamstring issue, and Joao Paulo will also return from a red card suspension. Even while the attack looked less dynamic in Seattle's previous few games when Ruidiaz wasn't around, they've still created 10.9 expected goals (xG) while scoring only four times, which mostly explains their stretch of four losses in six.

For the whole season, they're under-performing their xG by about six goals, and this is typically a team that over-performs xG when Ruidiaz is around.

The Sounders' moneyline is appealing, but I think the best value is on their team total going over 1.5 against a Timbers defense that has conceded 15 times in eight away games.

At -130 odds and a 56.5% probability — and slightly better payout than the Seattle moneyline — you're playing future projections more than recent past form. Sometimes that's the best way to get an edge.

Quillen's Pick: Sounders Over 1.5 (-130 via Caesars)

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Cincinnati vs Chicago

When you see a Supporters' Shield leader that is perfect at home installed at odds that suggest only a 60% chance of victory over a team with one away win, you have to find some way to back the favorite.

That said, I can understand why this line hasn't moved much. FC Cincinnati have lost Brenner and have been leaning very heavily on Luciano Acosta, who is very much a candidate for squad rotation in this one. And to some extent, there's just some sense FCC's 8-0-0 (W-L-D) run at home has to end at some point.

Cincy have the seventh-best xG difference in their conference, and their home dominance consists of a lot of one-goal victories. That said, I think the xGDiff number is slightly deceiving given how much time they've spent holding a lead.

Instead of completely turning away from the form book, I'd rather look for an additional angle to add to what seems like an obvious edge. In this one, it's parlaying the moneyline with a total under 3.5.

When Chicago lose on the road, it's generally because they can't score their way back into the game. When Cincy take leads at home, they are very comfortable holding the ball and trying to manage games without scoring in bunches.

At +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability, you're playing a wager that had cashed 11-of-16 times between Cincy home games and Chicago away fixtures.

Quillen's Pick: Same-game parlay, Cincy ML and Under 3.5 (+155 via BetMGM)