Major League Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: Montreal vs. New England Betting Preview (Sept. 29)

Major League Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: Montreal vs. New England Betting Preview (Sept. 29) article feature image
Credit:

Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Tajon Buchanan (left) and Gustavo Bou.

  • New England heads north of the border to face Montreal in Wednesday's Major League Soccer action.
  • The Revolution hold a 17-point lead on the next closest Eastern Conference foe, as well as a 14-point cushion in the Supporters' Shield race.
  • Ian Quillen takes a look at these sides below and delivers his top selection.

Montreal vs. New England Odds

Montreal Odds +155
New England Odds +175
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Wednesday | 7:30 p.m. ET
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The best team in Major League Soccer clashes with one of the most underrated clubs on Wednesday when the New England Revolution visit Montreal.

New England has clinched a playoff berth after a 2-1 win over Orlando City last Saturday. The Revolution hold a 17-point lead on the next closest Eastern Conference foe, as well as a 14-point cushion in the Supporters’ Shield race.

After a 2-1 loss in Columbus, Montreal is clinging to the seventh and final Eastern Conference playoff spot in a logjam, where five points separate third from ninth place.

New England narrowly won these teams’ previous meeting in a 2-1 home victory on the strength of Gustavo Bou’s brace.

Quioto’s Red-Hot Run Provides Huge Boost

It’s been an uneven season for Montreal striker Romell Quioto, but the Honduran international is getting rolling at the right time.

After interruptions due to the CONCACAF Gold Cup and a hamstring injury, Quioto has doubled his season total to six goals and added a pair of assists in the last three matches.

However, the 30-year-old’s 90-minute shift last Saturday could convince manager Wilfried Nancy to use Quioto off the bench with another crucial match against Atlanta coming Saturday.

Quioto’s return as a regular has also accompanied some stronger defensive performances, at least analytically. Montreal has conceded twice in its last three home matches, and seven times in the last seven matches overall.

Nancy’s club has also allowed opponents fewer than 1.0 expected goals in five consecutive matches, per StatsBomb.

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Dominant New England Enjoying Historic Season

The Revolution are on pace to set a new MLS record for points earned in a single season, requiring 11 from their last five matches to pass Los Angeles Football Club’s total during the 2019 campaign.

That’s not so much a sign of their outright dominance as proficiency in close matches. Of New England’s 19 victories, 16 have come by a single goal, including seven of its eight away victories.

That also points to the underlying analytics that help explain why the runaway Supporters’ Shield winners aren’t outright favorites in this match: The Revolution’s +11.1 xG difference is only the fourth highest in the Eastern Conference, and well shy of their actual goal difference of +20 overall.

Bou is responsible for a large chunk of that difference, scoring 12 goals on 8.1 xG in chances to lead the Revolution.

He’s listed as questionable on New England’s availability report, as is MLS assist leader Carles Gil, even though there was no sign either was nursing an injury in a 2-1 home win over Orlando City this past weekend.

Betting Analysis & Pick

After playing the first portion of the season’s home games in the United States because of pandemic travel restrictions, Montreal was allowed back to Stade Saputo in July.

Since then, it has won four of six home games. However, the strength of schedule has been obviously lacking. It has failed to win either match against an opponent currently above the Eastern Conference playoff line.

The inclusion of Bou and Gil on New England’s injury report leaves open the possibility manager Bruce Arena could rest both of the Revolution’s most important players.

Yet, without a game following this fixture until the international window, that seems unlikely unless something is really wrong.

The Revolution’s exceptional 8-3-3 away record is the second best in MLS behind only Seattle, and it’s come against a wider and better sample of competition than Montreal’s wins in Canada.

I’m backing New England here, though I’ll play a Draw No Bet because of the availability questions. If you want to wait until lineups are out, that makes sense to me. At -105 odds, you’re playing an implied 51.2% probability that New England wins if this game doesn’t end in a draw.

Pick: New England — Draw No Bet (-105)

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