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New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Betting Value Sitting on Over/Under in MLS Clash (June 19)

New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Betting Value Sitting on Over/Under in MLS Clash (June 19) article feature image
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Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New England Revolution goaltender Matt Turner.

New England vs. Minnesota Odds

New England Odds -160
Minnesota Odds +300
Draw +375
Over/Under 2.5 (-185 / +130) 
Day | Time Sunday | 5 p.m. ET
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The New England Revolution complete a busy week on Sunday when they host a Minnesota United side playing for the first time since May in this Major League Soccer clash.

The Revolution snagged a late winner in a 2-1 triumph at Sporting Kansas City last weekend and followed that result with a 1-1 home draw to Orlando City in Wednesday’s contest.

In contrast, Minnesota lost to defending MLS Cup holder New York City FC in a 1-0 defeat last time out, though it rarely looked capable of taking a point.

This will be these teams’ first meeting since a New England earned a 2-1 home win at Gillette Stadium on March 30 of 2019.

New England Revolution

The Revolution has been the busiest team in MLS in June and the first in MLS to play their third game of the month.

And that isn’t great timing, with leading scorer Adam Buksa officially departing for Ligue 1 side Lens. The Polish internaitonal had 23 goals in a bit under 1 1/2 MLS seasons.

Carles Gil, the 2021 MLS MVP, and strikers Gustavo Bou and Jozy Altidore should be enough to overcome that in the long run. However, it might be a grind. Gil and Bou have already combined for 359 minutes in the last seven days.

Lineup notes

  • Center back Henry Kessler (leg) has been upgraded to questionable. The defender hasn’t played since May 15.
  • Altidore played 45 minutes in midweek and could get his third start if Arena rotates his squad.

By The Numbers

  • 2.46 — The combined 90-minute xG average of the Revolution and their opponents in eight games in Gillette Stadium.
  • 5 of 8 — Number of times the total has stayed under 2.5 goals over the number of New England home games.
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Minnesota United

The Loons have tried solving their striker issues by committee in 2022, though it hasn’t really worked.

Thank goodness for Robin Lod, who leads Minnesota with six goals while being forced into a false No. 9 role at times.

Luis Amarilla — a more natural No. 9 — has disappointed with two goals, 0.23 goals per 90 minutes and 0.24 xG per 90 minutes. The other options — Franco Fragapane and Adrien Hunou — have yet to score.

Lineup notes

  • The Loons have everyone healthy and available, according to the team-issued injury report.
  • Lod played 33 minutes for Finland in a 3-2 loss at Bosnia on Tuesday, which could convince manager Adrian Heath to limit his minutes.

Key Statistics

  • +0.41 — Goals saved per 90 minutes by goalkeeper Dayne St. Clair, according to post-shot expected goals calculations.
  • 4 of 6 — The number of times the total has come in under 2.5 goals over the number of away matches Minnesota has played this season.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

The Revolution play some of the most wide-open games in all of MLS away from home, where they rarely go in search of a single point. However, games at Gillette Stadium can be cagier against conservative opponents.

Minnesota hasn’t shown much interest in opening things up on the road, outside its surprising recent win at FC Dallas aside. And St. Clair’s MLS-best form in goal has helped the Loons overcome some sloppy away defending.

Add in questions over the freshness of Bou, Gil and Lod, and the total under 2.5 goals is the play here. At +130 odds, you’re backing an implied 43.5% probability of a bet that has hit nine of 14 times on the home/away splits.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+130)

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