Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Porto vs. Liverpool Betting Preview (Sept. 28)

Champions League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Porto vs. Liverpool Betting Preview (Sept. 28) article feature image
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Gualter Fatia/Getty Images. Pictured: Pepe

  • Premier League giant Liverpool heads to Portugal for Tuesday's Champions League clash with Porto.
  • The Reds, led by Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané, are -140 favorites against their Primeira Liga foes.
  • Soccer handicapper Brett Pund breaks down this match and details why he's backing Liverpool to triumph.

Porto vs. Liverpool Odds

Porto Odds +380
Liverpool Odds -140
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +120)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Straight after a six-goal thriller this past weekend, Liverpool jumps right back into action Tuesday when it heads to Portugal to take on Porto in Champions League action.

Both clubs enter the contest on great form, with the two teams undefeated so far this season and both in the top 2 of their respective domestic leagues.

This has been a common pairing since Jürgen Klopp took over Liverpool, with the Reds winning three of four against the Portuguese side and outscoring them 11-1 in those games.

It’s a big opportunity for Liverpool to get some space at the top of Group B following a win over AC Milan in Matchday 1, but Porto will not be easy to beat at home.

Overlook Porto at Your Own Risk

It has been a decent start for FC Porto as it comes into Tuesday in second in the Primeira Liga on five wins and two draws.

Sérgio Conceição’s side has been pretty dominant in those matches as well, posting a +5.53 expected goals difference over the last six matches with a 1.73 xG according to infogol.net. That stretch includes the 0-0 draw at Atlético Madrid in the first round of Champions League action, where Porto held a 1.68-0.36 expected goals edge.

The goals this season have primarily come from midfielder Luis Díaz (5) and forwards Mehdi Taremi (4) and Toni Martínez (3). Conceição’s team ranks second in the Portuguese league with 16 total goals and four goals against.

Although the step up in competition could be a cause of concern, Porto will come into the match with confidence, holding an 18-match unbeaten streak spanning back to last season and winning its last nine at home in all competitions.

Liverpool Off and Running This Season

After a disappointing campaign last year, Liverpool has flown out of the blocks this season, entering midweek action at the top of the Premier League table with 14 points out of the available 18.

The Reds have been dominating from the front, leading the Premier League in expected goals (16.9), goals scored (15), shots per 90 minutes (23.33) and shots on target per match (7) according to fbref.com.

With Roberto Firmino missing a lot of action due to injury, it has been the trio of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané and Diogo Jota scoring the goals, with Salah pacing the team with six goals to go with a pair of assists.

It was obvious how much Liverpool missed the leadership of Virgil van Dijk for a large portion of last season due to injury, but his return has shown immediate results. The Reds have four shutouts through six league games.

The only absentees are midfielders Harvey Elliot, Thiago Alcantara and Naby Keita, but Klopp should have enough experience and squad depth to be able to cope.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Liverpool enters the match as the -140 favorite at DraftKings, and the total for the game is set at 2.5 shaded to the over at -145.

The Reds have dominated the recent history when these two teams have played, and I expect that to continue here. I’m going to play them at -140 on the moneyline as my best bet.

Looking beyond the previous meetings, this will be a big step up for Porto coming from its domestic league, and the Portuguese side has two draws against the hardest teams on their schedule so far in Sporting CP and Atlético Madrid.

Klopp knows how to break down Porto, and he will likely have Firmino back in the fold to utilize upfront.

Taking Liverpool on the Asian handicap of -1 (+130) was tempting given how the Reds have won all four wins in the Premier League this season by multiple goals, but I wonder if Klopp will be peeking ahead to the game against Manchester City on Sunday.

I could see him taking out his attacking talent early in the second half to give them some extra rest, but I do think Liverpool will continue its strong start to the season with a win in Portugal.

Pick: Liverpool ML (-140)

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