Premier League Odds & Picks | Brentford vs Crystal Palace Preview
Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Bryan Mbuemo.
Premier League Odds & Picks
| Brentford Odds | +105 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +270 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -138 |
Brentford will look to remain unbeaten through match day 3 of the Premier League when they host Crystal Palace on Saturday at the Gtech Community Stadium.
The Bees saw off 10-man Fulham 3-0 last weekend at Craven Cottage in a game that turned dramatically in their favor when Cottagers defender Tim Ream conceded a penalty and was sent off in the process early in the second half.
Penalty decisions were also pivotal for Palace in their 1-0 home loss to Arsenal, with one spot kick awarded to the Gunners to stake them to a lead and the one not bestowed upon the hosts later in the second half.
These teams shared the points in both meetings last season, playing to a 1-1 draw in each of their league fixtures.
Here are my Premier League picks for Brentford vs Crystal Palace.
Brentford
The question of Brentford's early season has been how they'll fare without Ivan Toney, last year's 20-goal scorer who is suspended until January after violating FA betting rules.
So far, the Bees have replaced Toney's production through the twin threat of Yoane Wissa and Bryan Mbueno, who have each scored in both of their side's PL games so far. But they also possess offensive production and xG numbers this season have been heavily skewed by fortunate match circumstances.
Two of Mbuemo's three goals have come from the penalty spot. Including Mbuemo's second penalty against Fulham, Brentford generated 2.9 of their 3.7 total xG against the Cottagers after going down to 10 men.
While the Bees have been lauded for their willingness to play an attacking style against the EPL elite, it's often when they play sides in the lower half of the table when things get cagey.
Brentford went unbeaten in 10 home league games against such teams in 2022-2023 league campaign — but in only one of those were more than three goals scored. Additionally, we still haven't really seen what life without Toney looks like against the kind of sides that would consider taking a point at the Community Stadium a decisively positive result.
Crystal Palace
Palace gave a credible account of themselves on match day 2 against Arsenal and perhaps deserved to reward their home fans with a point for their troubles.
The decision to award the Gunners a penalty when Palace goalkeeper Sam Johnstone caught Eddie Nketiah early in the second half was probably a correct one. More questionable was referee David Coote's decision not to do the same when Eberechi Eze went down in the other box later on.
That said, Palace's major sin was not being able to threaten Arsenal once they had the numerical advantage following Takehiro Tomiyasu's second yellow card received in the 67th minute. While the Eagles had seven shots after going a man up, only two had an xG value above 0.1 and none above 0.25.
Zooming out, it's still an open question whether Palace are a substantively better team since Roy Hodgson re-assumed the managerial reigns in March.
The Eagles hold an xG differential per 90 minutes of around +0.5 in the 12 league fixtures since the manager swap. However, only three of those games came against top-half finishers from last season, and last Monday's loss to Arsenal was the first against one of the 2022-2023 Champions League qualifiers.
Brentford vs Crystal Palace
Preview
If you believe in Palace's improvement, then there might be value on the Eagles on the moneyline or double chance markets. In my view, the data sample is too skewed toward lesser opposition to be reliable.
As for Brentford, the numbers may flatter them, though it's also pretty clear they will continue to be a tough opponent for most of the league, with Toney or not.
There's probably a little value here on the under given that Brentford's xG numbers tell a flattering story in attack, coupled with the Bees' track record of tighter games against lower-half sides. But their strong home form is also too good to be ignored.
My top play then is on a conservative same-game parlay on a Brentford or draw double chance bet and the total coming in under 3.5 at -145 odds and an implied 59.2% probability. It's a lot of juice, but it's a wager that cashed nine out of 10 times against bottom-half foes in Brentford home games last season, and five out of six times in Palace away games against the teams that finished between 5th and 10th. It probably has a fair price as expensive as -175 or so.
Pick: Same-game parlay, Brentford or draw double chance and under 3.5 (-145 via BetMGM)
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