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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: EPL Betting Preview for Southampton vs. Arsenal (April 16)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: EPL Betting Preview for Southampton vs. Arsenal (April 16) article feature image

Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton standout Mohammed Salisu.

  • Southampton hosts Arsenal in Saturday's Premier League showdown.
  • The Gunners enter this match as solid +100 moneyline favorites, but analyst Avery Zimmerman has found bettng value on the Saints.
  • Check out below why he expects Southampton to scratch out a result.

Southampton vs. Arsenal Odds

Southampton Odds +275
Arsenal Odds -105
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Neither Arsenal nor Southampton have been on a good run of form over recent weeks, but the trend has been more impactful on the Gunners, who are quickly allowing the Premier League season to slip away from them.

So, will Arsenal be able to launch a late-season push toward the top four in the table or can Southampton put another dagger in its hopes of European football? Let’s take a look to see where we can find some value for this game.

Southampton Looking Ahead to Next Season

After suffering a 4-1 loss to Manchester City in the FA Cup quarterfinal round, Southampton’s season all but came to a close.

Sitting at 14th in the EPL table, the Saints will be comfortable with their position, as they’re 12 points from the relegation zone and without much to play for in the league. They won’t be making a push for any European spot, but  also don’t have any threat of being relegated to the Championship.

Southampton’s performances have reflected that lack of intensity, with just one point amassed in its past five EPL fixtures. During that span, Southampton has garnered two positive expected-goal differentials, but generally it has lacked energy and failed to take the initiative.

Heading into this fixture, Southampton could be getting a number of players back to fitness and we’re entering the point of the season where the purpose of these games might be to see who will play an important role, if any, in the team next season.

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Arsenal In Danger of Major Collapse

Before dropping its clash against Crystal Palace, Arsenal seemed to be on track to reclaim its place in the UCL after years out of the competition.

Two consecutive losses have Arsenal on the outside looking in at the Champions League, though, as it sits three points behind Tottenham with a game in hand. The Gunners are listed anywhere from +220 to +300 to finish in the top four, and failing to notch all three points from this fixture would put them in a dire situation.

In Arsenal’s defense, its results over its last two games have not quite reflected the actual performances, with the club dominating Brighton & Hove Albion to a near two-xG margin and falling to Crystal Palace by a sub negative-0.5 xG margin despite losing by three goals.

Arsenal enters this match without some key players in Thomas Partey and Takehiro Tomiyasu, as well as Kieran Tierney, who is out for the season.

BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections 

Betting Analysis & Pick

With the stakes sitting on the side of the Gunners, I want to lean toward them, but there aren’t many reasons to believe the value lies on Arsenal’s side outside of motivation.

Southampton’s home xG differential of 0.13 per game is clear of Arsenal’s away xG differential of -0.11 xG/outing, with recent form backing up that differential. Outside of its 6-0 loss to Chelsea, Southampton has maintained an xG differential within one of each of its last six home games.

On the other hand, Arsenal has been consistently underperforming on the road and I can’t buy this club to turn the tide.

Pick: Southampton +0.5 (-115)

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