Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks & Prediction: Everton vs. Chelsea Betting Preview
Trevor Ruszkowski/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Raheem Sterling.
- Christian Pulisic and Chelsea open their Premier League season Saturday with a trip to Goodison Park to face Everton.
- The Blues, who enter the campaign as title contender, face a foe that could be in another relegation scrap.
- Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and explains why he thinks it will be a rough day at the office for Everton.
Everton vs. Chelsea Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Chelsea begins its first full season under new American ownership when it makes a trip to Goodison Park on Saturday to face Everton in their Premier League opener.
The visiting Blues were better away from home last campaign in their first full season under manager Thomas Tuchel. However, they were 1-0 losers at the Toffees on May 1 thanks to a Richarlison goal, making it four consecutive league defeats at Goodison. Obviously, the ground has been a tricky place for Chelsea in recent outings.
Of course, Richarlison has moved on to Tottenham after helping Everton avoid relegation and the host side’s additions have been sparse.
The result is Chelsea enters this match as heavier favorites than their last trip, when Everton was in a relegation scrap.
The return to health of Yerry Mina and signing of James Tarkowski should make Everton’s back line much better. However, where will the goals come from this season?
The Toffees haven’t signed a replacement for Richarlison. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is again injured with a knee ailment. Dele Ali had some moments, but rarely looked like his former self in limited action after a move from Tottenham.
In Anthony Gordon and Dwight McNeil, manager Frank Lampard has two promising young wingers. But even if Everton is in a period of relative spending austerity, this roster is clearly a work in progress.
By The Numbers
- 1-7-2 — Everton’s record (W-L-D) without Richarlison last season.
- 44.4% — The Toffees’ home clean-sheet percentage (four of nine) in the English top flight under Lampard.
Tuchel’s men rarely put a foot wrong in the first four months of the previous campaign. However, Chelsea then dropped points five times in eight EPL matches, including a 1-1 home draw against an Everton side then managed by Rafa Benítez.
One constant across the whole season was Chelsea’s reverse home/away splits. That could’ve also been owed to the fact Tuchel’s men relied on pressing to create their best chances.
At Stamford Bridge, where opponents were less willing to come forward, Chelsea was hurt by subpar seasons from its attackers, particularly Romelu Lukaku. The Blues will hope the addition of former Manchester City standout Raheem Sterling will solve some of those issues.
By The Numbers
- 12-3-4 — Chelsea’s away record (W-L-D) last season.
- +28 — The Blues away goal difference in those road games.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The opening weekend can make for fruitful opportunities betting the over, where teams feel freedom and opportunity, with the pressure of the EPL grind yet to build. However, the opposite is the case here.
Everton’s relegation scare still carries huge weight around the club, plus the club is likely to be one of the more risk-averse sides as Lampard looks to make prudent additions to his squad.
It’s unlikely we see him swerve to more aggressive tactics this early in the campaign, even though he clearly wants to build a more proactive Everton in the long term.
The only way that changes is if Chelsea nicks an early goal. And then it’s going to be awful tough for the home side facing a defense that kept 11 away clean sheets last season.
So, I like a bet against both teams scoring at Goodison Park. And the trends back that up. A wager on Both Teams To Score (No) hit in six of Lampard’s nine home matches in charge and 12 of Chelsea’s 19 away EPL fixtures. That’s a higher rate than the -130 odds and implied 56.5% probability.
The Pick: Both Teams To Score — No (-130)
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