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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Back This Plus-Money Total in Liverpool vs. Leeds United EPL Clash (Feb. 23)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Back This Plus-Money Total in Liverpool vs. Leeds United EPL Clash (Feb. 23) article feature image
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Zac Goodwin/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Sadio Mané.

  • Leeds United makes the trip to Anfield for Wednesday's Premier League clash with Liverpool.
  • The Peacocks are massive +1700 ML underdogs against the Reds, who are within six points of Manchester City in the table.
  • Avery Zimmerman takes a deep dive into the meeting below and gives his top pick connected to the total.

Liverpool vs. Leeds Odds

Liverpool Odds -650
Leeds Odds +1700
Draw +750
Over/Under 3.5 (-140 / +115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Liverpool will compete for a Carabao Cup title when it faces Chelsea on the weekend, but there’s the matter of Leeds United to be had on Wednesday in Premier League action. And the Reds will have a bit of new hope in their efforts for the title after Tottenham upset Manchester City last Saturday.

Currently, Leeds sits at 15th in the table, but safety is far from assured for a team only five points clear of the relegation zone. However, there’s no serious danger at the moment, but a poor stretch could create some major concerns.

So, will the Peacocks be able to neutralize a red-hot Liverpool team at Anfield? Let’s take a look to see where we can find betting value.

Liverpool Finding Results in Every Way

Liverpool’s past two games were prime examples of what a truly elite team can do. Despite playing well below its best against Inter Milan and Norwich City, the Reds generated two victories.

In the Champions League fixture, the Serie A favorites and Liverpool were deadlocked at 0-0 in the 75th minute without much separating them before Roberto Firmino’s cheeky header delivered the advantage. Mohamed Salah secured the win for Liverpool in the 83rd minute, and in what seemed like the blink of an eye, Liverpool took firm control of the tie.

Against Norwich, Liverpool actually trailed in the 48th minute, but once again it responded with two goals that occurred in quick succession, putting the Reds in a sudden lead when it seemed as if they were in a dire position.

Of course, we know Jürgen Klopp’s men are capable of just dominating from the outset as they have done frequently in the new year, but the ability to grind out results when struggles are occurring is a great sign for a squad looking to compete in two extremely difficult competitions.

Liverpool could be looking ahead to its cup final with Chelsea on Sunday, but with added optimism thanks to Harry Kane’s late winner for Tottenham against  City, Liverpool’s focus is likely to be full when the Peacocks arrive at Anfield.

Now just six points back with a game in hand, Liverpool should be ready to push forward and add pressure on the league leaders.

Leeds Struggling to Contain Offenses

In the Peacocks’ four previous EPL contests, they’ve amassed just one point of the available 12 to them.

The argument could be made it has been unfortunate, with each of its past three opponents outperforming against their expected-goals number, but some really poor moments have cost Leeds from picking up crucial points.

That’s been the story for the club all season, but it’ll be tough to turn that luck around against a team as ruthless as Liverpool. As we all know, Anfield is probably the toughest place to play in England, and the Peacocks haven’t beaten the Reds since the 2001 season.

Nonetheless, manager Marcelo Bielsa’s squad is due for a bit of fortune after some harsh results. Even a bit of fortune wouldn’t be enough to get a point here, but that doesn’t mean it’s in store for a completely horrific showing.

Leeds has only conceded a two-plus xG differential once in the new year, though it did suffer a near four xG edge in the reverse fixture, when the Reds were in cruise control from start to finish in a 3-0 win.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As hard as it is to stomach, I actually have some faith in the Leeds’ back line.

It has conceded a maximum of 2.61 xGA game since the start of 2022, and Bielsa will set this team up to try and find chances out of the counterattack. By no means will that be an easy task, but it’ll be difficult for Liverpool to bring its full intensity again when this will be its fourth game in 10 days.

Liverpool has gone over 3.5 goals in just two of its past five Premier League games, and that’s partly due to its average of 2.5 xG in those games. The Reds’ back line has been incredibly consistent, so this is a total I’m okay playing at plus money.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (+115)

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