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Premier League Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Everton EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 8)

Premier League Updated Odds, Picks, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Everton EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 8) article feature image

Tony McArdle/Everton FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Demarai Gray

  • Newcastle are a slight favorite over Everton in Tuesday Premier League action (2:45 p.m. ET), with the total at 2.5.
  • The line has actually moved in Newcastle's favor, but it's a tough match to handicap with transfer window additions on both sides and a new manager for Everton.
  • Get Ian Quillen's full Newcastle vs. Everton preview and pick below.

Newcastle vs. Everton Odds

Newcastle Odds +145
Everton Odds +200
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -115)
Day | Time Tuesday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds updated Tuesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Frank Lampard’s Premier League tenure begins on Tuesday when his Everton side search for crucial breathing room in the relegation battle in Tuesday night’s visit to Newcastle United

Everton sit 16th in the table, four points and three places above 19th-place Newcastle and four points above the bottom three. Lampard began his tenure in bright fashion with a 4-1 win over Brentford in the FA Cup fourth round on Saturday at Goodison Park.

The Magpies will be playing for the first time in 17 days, when they picked up their lone away win of the season at Leeds United prior to the international break. Newcastle had the weekend off thanks to their FA Cup third round home defeat to Cambridge United back on the second weekend of January.

This is the teams’ first meeting since COVID-19 concerns within Newcastle’s camp postponed their Goodison Park clash originally scheduled for Dec. 30.

Newcastle Amid Another Relegation Battle

Only Burnley have fewer wins than the Magpies, whose fans have become accustomed to relegation battles in recent seasons.

That said, things have improved incrementally since Eddie Howe’s appointment as manager in early November, with both wins coming since he took charge.

That includes their 1-0 triumph at Elland Road on Jan. 28, when Jonjo Shelvey’s free kick skipped past the unsure hands of Leeds goalkeeper Illan Meslier.

Howe’s teams have also created more expected goals than their opponents in three matches out of 10, compared to one out of 11 prior to his arrival.

Newcastle’s xG difference per game is also modestly improved at -0.74 under Howe against -0.83 overall. That comes despite the Magpies playing league leaders Manchester City and second-place Liverpool since Howe’s arrival.

In fact, Newcastle haven’t lost to a team currently sitting lower than 11th in the table all season. But they haven’t beaten any of those 11 either.

Bruno Guimaraes could make his Premier League debut. The 25-year-old holding midfielder arrived in late January on a transfer from Lyon worth a reported $55 million.

Signs of Improved Play Hitting Everton

Once their slide started under previous manager Rafa Benitez, the Toffees never did turn it around.

But if Saturday’s cup win was the beginning in an improvement on results, there have been signs it has been coming.

Everton have created more xG than their opposition in three consecutive league matches despite losing all three. They failed to do so in any of their previous 10 games.

Brazilian international Richarlison looks to be rediscovering his peak form after scoring in two of his last three games in all competitions.

And last year’s leading scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin is again available after a minor injury saw him sit out Saturday’s FA Cup win.

Then again, underperforming their metrics has been a characteristic of most of Everton’s season. Their -3.5 xG difference is easily the best of any team in the bottom-quarter of the table and ranks 11th in the Premier League overall.

Maybe some of this owes to game states. Part of the reason Everton are creating so much is they’re consistently playing from behind. The Toffees have conceded first in an astounding 16 out of 20 EPL matches.

Late-window transfer acquisitions Dele Alli and Donny van de Beek could debut for their new clubs Tuesday. Both were cup tied for Saturday’s win over Brentford.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This is one of the hardest matchdays to handicap across the board, since it’s the first when many EPL teams will be featuring new transfer window additions.

Add a new manager in Lampard and there are lots of unknowns here.

But if you’re judging based solely on the analytics, the wrong team is slight favorites. Everton have struggled away, but their -3.9 xG difference away is better than Newcastle’s -8.5 xG at home.

The Magpies have been just woeful at St. James’ Park, perhaps in part because of the pressure since their blockbuster ownership takeover.

There’s also some value on the total going over here. Combine Newcastle’s home matches and Everton’s away days, teams have created a combined 2.73 xG per game over 21 matches.

I’m going to leverage both trends together on a game parlay that ties a double-chance Everton or draw wager to the total going over 1.5 goals at -140 odds and an implied 58.3% probability.

In that same 21-game sample of Everton away games and Newcastle home matches, this bet would’ve hit 14 times previously or at a 66.7% rate.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Everton or Draw & Total Over 1.5 Goals (-140)

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