Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Wolves vs. Leeds United Betting Preview (March 18)
Tim Goode/Getty. Pictured: Leeds United standout Joe Gelhardt celebrates a goal.
- Wolverhampton welcomes Leeds to Molineux Stadium for Friday’s Premier League clash.
- The Peacocks, who are moneyline underdogs, are looking to steer clear of relegation chatter.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the matchup below and details why he thinks Leeds gets a result.
Wolves vs. Leeds Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -115)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 4 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Wolves host Leeds United in an important Premier League fixture on Friday, setting up for an interesting showdown in the West Midlands.
Both teams enter the contest on the back of a win last weekend, and while the stakes are higher for the Peacocks looking to fend off any semblance of a relegation battle, Wolverhampton has an outside shot at a European position.
So, will the Peacocks be able to challenge Wolves in this bout?
Wolves Riding Rollercoaster of Form
It’s been an up-and-down period for the mid-table side, as Wolverhampton has failed to generate a consistent period of play, but also hasn’t allowed any series of games to slip away.
Wolves won their last two games, but lost their prior two outings and followed a similar trend in the fixtures prior as well. Generally, their performances have aligned with their results. In the two recent wins, Wolverhampton maintained an expected-goals edge, while in the two losses Crystal Palace and West Ham United held the xG advantage.
The last time a Wolves performance didn’t align with xG came on Jan. 22 in a victory over Brentford, so this really is a team that has created its own fortune in the new year.
Wolves will be missing Nelson Semedo and Ki-Jana Hoever, but that didn’t stop them from getting past Everton last Sunday.
Leeds Looking to Build on Victory
Heading into its fixture with Norwich City, Leeds had lost six games on the bounce and had failed to secure a victory in nine. Now, the mood has changed around the Peacocks, who are four points clear of the relegation zone.
Leeds is not safe by any means, as the 29 games played represent a tie for the most in the league and teams below the Peacocks have games in hand, but the victory was a good start toward securing safety.
New boss Jesse Marsch could also provide a “new manager” boost, and while it’s hard to judge his performance based on two games, Leeds already appears to be playing with a touch more energy. Norwich isn’t the type of team that provides a litmus test in the EPL either, but it would have been a bit devastating for the squad if it wasn’t able to secure three points.
The Peacocks come into the match with a few injury problems as well, but like with Wolves, a majority of the starting lineup will be available.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
It might appear like the value lies with a considerably better Wolves team on paper that’s getting priced at plus money to win, but I actually see the Peacocks as being the side with an edge.
They come into the match having found a new energy thanks to Marsch’s hire, and the metrics behind this matchup don’t considerably favor Wolves. They maintain a -0.1 xG differential/game at Molineux Stadium, while Leeds has a -0.53 xG differential/game away from home.
That doesn’t account for the slight but very real new manager bump, and also the fact that Leeds is in far more dire need of a result than Wolves is at this point. A victory would put the Peacocks seven points clear of the relegation zone, and while stakes are often overrated when evaluating matchups, that should provide a marginal boost as well.
All things considered, giving Leeds half a goal at a marginally juiced price seems a bit generous considering the trajectory of the side. And while the Peacocks can be one of the most frustrating teams to watch, I’ll back them to get another crucial result.
Pick: Leeds +0.5 (-125)
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