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Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Burnley vs. Southampton EPL Betting Preview (April 21)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Burnley vs. Southampton EPL Betting Preview (April 21) article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Southampton teammates Adam Armstrong, left, and Che Adams.

  • Burnley welcomes Southampton to Turf Moor for Thursday's crucial Premier League showdown.
  • The Clarets are in the middle of a relegation situation, so getting all three points against the Saints would be huge.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the match below and gives his top betting pick.

Burnley vs. Southampton Odds

Burnley Odds +170
Southampton Odds +160
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -140)
Day | Time Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Thursday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

To close out the midweek Premier League slate, Burnley hosts Southampton at Turf Moor on Thursday in a pivotal match at the bottom of the table.

The Clarets enter the contest sitting in the relegation zone in 18th place, trailing Everton by three points as both clubs look to avoid the drop.

Meanwhile, the Saints are safely a midtable side and can already plan on another EPL season in the next campaign.

Looking at the recent history between these teams, Burnley has only lost one of its last six home games to Southampton. However, none were as big as this clash, with it set up to be a must-win to stay in the English top flight.

Burnley Still Fighting for EPL Survival

After the surprising departure of long-time manager Sean Dyche, the Clarets picked up a valuable point at West Ham United this past weekend.

Unfortunately, they should have taken all three points, as star striker Maxwell Cornet missed a first-half penalty that likely would have sealed the much-needed victory.

Regardless of who will be leading the team, the defensive struggles have been there all season for Burnley, which ranks toward the bottom of the league in expected goals allowed per 90 minutes (1.52) and opponents’ shots per game (16.32), according to fbref.com.

It also doesn’t help that club captain and key defender Ben Mee is still sidelined with an injury, which keeps him out of this key fixture as well.

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Southampton Hoping to Reverse Form

Southampton enters this game in terrible form, losing four out of its last six EPL outings to fall to 13th place in the table.

Over this stretch of fixtures, the Saints have posted a -5.8 xGDiff and been outscored by 11 goals, which includes losses to teams below them in the league table in Watford, Aston Villa and Newcastle United.

Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl was able to motivate his team this past weekend in the win over Arsenal, but his team was lucky as the Gunners still held a +1.1 xGDiff in the game.

So, is he going to be able to do the same thing for a midweek trip to Burnley? Southampton’s motivation is the biggest question heading into this contest.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

Looking at the odds at BetMGM, the visitors are listed as slight favorites at +160 on the moneyline to go along with a total of 2.5 goals.

The inconsistencies and struggles of both teams keep me away from picking a winner, but I do see value in the total. That said, my best bet is to back that total flying over 2.5 goals at even money.

One key metric I like to look at for totals is the combined xG averages in recent games. In the last six league matches, games involving Southampton have averaged a combined 2.97 xG per game. Meanwhile, Burnley’s fixtures have yielded even more at 3.12 xG overall.

This contest also features struggling defenses at the moment. Over the same stretch of six EPL games, the Clarets have allowed 2.02 xG per 90 minutes, which is slightly worse than the Saints’ 1.97 xGA per game average in this run.

Also, this same bet has been very profitable in Southampton road games. In the 15 away EPL matches, 11 (73%) have finished with more than 2.5 goals.

This is the same team that ranks 14th in the league in crosses allowed into the penalty area per contest, and the Saints have conceded 13 goals from set pieces. As we all know, Burnley isn’t the club you want to come up against if you struggle defending crosses.

The Clarets have to push for a victory and that urgency combined with poor defending should give us a great opportunity to see goals in this crucial match.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

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