Premier League Betting Odds & Picks (Thursday, July 9): Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Predictions

Credit:

Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA.Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Grealish of Aston Villa.

Jul 09, 2020, 01:44 PM EDT
  • Looking for English Premier League betting odds and picks for Thursday? You've come to the right place.
  • Manchester United vs. Aston Villa will kick off at 3:15 p.m. ET (NBCSN), with United a considerable -315 favorite, Aston Villa at +850 and the draw at +440.
  • Below you'll find a full match preview, including a recommended pick on the spread.

Manchester United vs. Aston Villa Odds

Manchester United odds -315 [BET NOW]
Aston Villa odds +850 [BET NOW]
Draw +440 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+123) [BET NOW]
Time Thursday, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV NBC Sports

Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


There’s no team in the Premier League in better form since the restart than Manchester United, who have won three and drawn one in their first four matches. The partnership of Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba in the midfield along with an in-form front three has led to plenty of goals and wins for the Red Devils as they travel to struggling Aston Villa on Thursday.

Villa enters this match on 27 points, sitting in 18th, four points from safety. With just five matches to play, Aston Villa need to put up at least two, maybe three wins if they want to remain in the Premier League next year. In five matches since the restart, the Lions have lost three and drawn two, but they’ve put up some decent performances and have been a bit unfortunate to not see any results.

Villa outplayed both Sheffield United and Chelsea for large portions of the first two matches of the return, but poor finishing led to just one goal and one point out of a possible six. They dominated most of the play against Newcastle in a 1-1 draw, and then lost back-to-back games to Wolves and Liverpool after stifling both attacks for the majority of the match. Even though they’ve taken just two points, their expected points is 4.9 from those matches.

On the opposite end, no attacking unit is in better form than Manchester United. The front three of Marcus Rashford, Mason Greenwood and Anthony Martial have provided pace and quality finishing. With the creativity of Fernandes and Pogba, the Red Devils have scored 11 goals in three matches on 6.68 xG.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


While the play has been really good, the finishing has been unsustainably great. Mason Greenwood now has eight Premier League goals this season on 2.73 xG, a historically efficient finishing return. United have also tied the Premier League record for most penalties drawn in one season (12).

While it may be true that United is in great form, the market has overreacted significantly to their good form and that creates value on an underrated Aston Villa side.

Manchester United have also struggled in one key area defensively that the Lions may be able to exploit: corners. United have conceded eight goals from corners this year, and thanks to the usually excellent delivery from Jack Grealish, Villa have scored seven goals off corners.

It will probably only take one goal for Villa to get inside the spread here. The Red Devils have also struggled away from Old Trafford this season, where they rank ninth in the Premier League with 20 points and an even goal difference.

This is a classic buy-low, sell-high play here, where the market is overreacting and overvaluing a mediocre road team playing against a desperate Villa side. I don’t know if the Lions will manage a point from this match, but I expect them to keep it competitive.

Pick: Aston Villa +1.5 (-115)
Get a $1000 sign-up bonus

BET NOW at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
How would you rate this article?

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories