RB Leipzig vs. Paderborn Updated Odds, Picks and Predictions: Finding Value in the Bundesliga’s Biggest Mismatch (Saturday, June 6)
Ina Fassbender/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Dani Olmo
- RB Leipzig are massive -1000 favorites over last-place Paderborn in the updated betting odds for Saturday's Bundesliga match.
- Since the Red Bulls are such a huge favorite, Michael Leboff tries to find value further down the oddsboard with an alternate spread bet.
Paderborn at RB Leipzig Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
|RB Leipzig odds||-1000
|Time||Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET|
Saturday morning’s tilt between second-place RB Leipzig and last-place SC Paderborn is the biggest mismatch on the oddsboard this weekend. When you convert the odds to implied probability, this is what you get:
- RB Leipzig: 85.4%
- Draw: 9.9%
- Paderborn: 4.7%
I always like to start my handicapping process by trying to make a case for the underdog, especially in matches with lopsided odds, but it’s pretty difficult to find a path to success for Paderborn against the second-best team in the Bundesliga.
The one thing that Paderborn can benefit from is RB Leipzig’s chaotic form since the Bundesliga returned to action. A total of 17 goals have been scored in Leipzig’s last four matches and Die Roten Bullen made things difficult on themselves in a wild 4-2 victory over Koln on Monday.
Despite their recent volatility, RB Leipzig’s overall statistical profile remains incredibly impressive, especially on defense where they lead the Bundesliga in expected goals against.
Paderborn’s portfolio pales in comparison.
|Goals for per game||2.74||1.1|
|Expected goals for per game||2.48||1.16|
|Goals against per game||1.15||2.1|
|Expected goals against per game||1.18||1.92|
|Total goals per game||3.89||3.21|
|Total expected goals per game||3.65||3.08|
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Anything less than three points would be a disaster for Leipzig. Die Roten Bullen have been terrific this season but their two-point lead over fifth-place Bayer Leverkusen is fragile and means they are still not guaranteed a Champions League spot for 2020-21.
Paderborn, on the other hand, are destined for relegation and their performance against Dortmund in a 6-1 defeat last time out makes you wonder if Steffen Baumgart’s side has thrown in the proverbial towel on this season. Trying to figure out a team’s motivation is nearly impossible, but if you had to give a “motivational edge” to one side it would be to RB Leipzig, who don’t need any more advantages in this match.
There’s no value backing Leipzig on the moneyline and tossing them into a parlay seems ill-advised since it won’t add much value to your bet, so you may be better off going into other markets if you’re looking for action on this match.
If you’re looking to bet the Over 3.5, I’d consider backing RB Leipzig to go over their team total at the same number. Paderborn has one of the league’s weakest attacks and they’re going up against Germany’s best defensive side, so if you’re taking an over, you’re really leaning on Leipzig to do the heavy lifting. And since the game total is juiced at -155 for Over 3.5, why not take +123 on RB Leipzig to get there by themselves?
In the end, this match feels like a blowout and that’s the way I’ll be playing it. The odds tell you that a multi-goal victory by Leipzig is the most likely result and thus, I see some value on Leipzig to cover the -3.5 alternate spread at +215.
Four-goal victories aren’t easy to come by in soccer but the gap between these two teams in large enough where it’s not that hard to envision this game devolving into a romp for RB Leipzig.