Borussia Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga Odds, Pick, Predictions (April 3)
Lars Baron/Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund striker Erling Haaland.
- Eintracht Frankfurt has a four-point lead over Dortmund heading into Saturday's Bundesliga match.
- However, we have to take Frankfurt's recent good results with a grain of salt, as they've overachieved based on their underlying metrics.
- Kieran Darcy outlines the case for backing Dortmund as the home favorite below.
Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt Odds
|Eintracht Frankfurt Odds||+325|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+115 / -141)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday morning via DraftKings.|
It’s a huge weekend in the Bundesliga, with second-place RB Leipzig hosting league leader Bayern Munich in Saturday’s heavyweight showdown.
Earlier in the day, another important match in the German top flight takes place when fifth-place Borussia Dortmund hosts fourth-place Eintracht Frankfurt.
Let’s take a look at these two powerful clubs and see what might be in store.
With eight matches remaining in the season, the Black and Yellows have 43 points — putting it four behind Frankfurt for next season’s final automatic Champions League spot.
Dortmund is also still alive in this season’s UCL competition, but faces a tall task in the quarterfinal round when it faces goes up against Premier League giant Manchester City. The first leg of this two-game affair is scheduled for Tuesday in England.
The Black and Yellows most recent league match was a 2-2 draw on March 20 at 16th-place Köln. They had won three of their previous four league matches, defeating Schalke (4-0); , Arminia (3-0); and; Hertha Berlin by a 2-0 scoreline.
Mixed in those positive results was a 4-2 loss at the hands of Bayern Munich.
Dortmund has scored 54 goals in 26 league fixtures, which equates to being more than two goals per game. That ranks the club second in the Germany’s first division, although it’s well back of Bayern Munich in the category. The Bavarians have scored a stunning 78 goals this season.
Defensively, the Black and Yellows have also conceded 37 goals, so that works out to be nearly 1.5 goals per game.
As mentioned above, Frankfurt has a four-point lead over Dortmund in the table. The hosts are also four points behind third-place Wolfsburg.
The Eagles were not involved in European competition this season, plus they were eliminated from the DFB-Pokal competition in mid-January. So, they’ve been exclusively focused on the Bundesliga for a while now.
Frankfurt’s most recent match was a 5-2 win over seventh-place Union Berlin back on March 20 That was preceded by 1-1 draws with RB Leipzig and ninth-place Stuttgart. Prior that came a 2-1 loss at 12th-place Werder Bremen, but the Eagles did earn a 2-1 win over Bayern Munich in the game before that.
In terms of goals scored and goals conceded, these two clubs are practically even. Frankfurt has recorded 53 goals, which is just one fewer than Dortmund. On the defensive side, the Eagles have conceded 36 goals, which is one less than their opponents.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The first meeting between these clubs, which occurred almost four months ago, this finished in a 1-1 stalemate. However, Dortmund held a 16-9 edge in shots in that match, plus it topped Frankfurt in terms of expected goals by a 1.2-0.8 margin, according to FBref.com.
Speaking of xG, the underlying numbers reveal a rather stark difference between these clubs, despite having identical +17 goal differentials.
In terms of xG differential, Dortmund has been significantly better. It currently sits at +22.0, which places it third in the league and not very far behind RB Leipzig (+26.7) and Bayern Munich (+24.8) in the ranking.
Frankfurt is at +8.3 in xGDiff, which ranks its seventh and behind Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach — both at +10.1 — and Union Berlin (+9.5) in the advanced metric.
And you have to take Frankfurt’s recent good results with a grain of salt. In terms of xG, it has lost four of its past five games — including that 5-2 victory over Union Berlin, the draw with RB Leipzig and the win over Bayern Munich.
That being said, I like Dortmund to earn the home victory in this crucial match.
Pick: Dortmund ML (-129)