Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet West Bromwich Albion vs. Fulham (Saturday, Jan. 30)
Visionhaus. Pictured: Fulham standout Bobby Reid.
- Two of Premier League's worst clubs face off Saturday when West Bromwich Albion hosts Fulham.
- Can either of these sides bag all three points at The Hawthorns?
- Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and delivers his top picks below.
West Brom vs. Fulham Odds
|West Brom Odds||+240|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
Struggling clubs destined for trips to the Championship go at it Saturday when West Bromwich Albion hosts Fulham in a crucial Premier League showdown.
Both sides have firmly planted themselves in the relegation zone, with only the visiting Cottagers having a potential escape path to safety.
Fulham, sitting in 18th place on 13 points, enters this match fresh off a scoreless draw against Brighton & Hove Albion last time out. The Cottagers sit five points behind the Seagulls, who continue to steer clear of danger.
On the other side, the Baggies are coming off a 5-0 shellacking against Manchester City and have just 11 points through 20 fixtures this season.
Let’s take a look at these clubs and see what could be in store in this meeting.
Life could not be any worse for manager Sam Allardyce and the Baggies, who have now conceded a whopping 17 goals in their last five home tilts after that midweek debacle against the Cityzens. Making matters worse is the fact they were shut out over the course of those contests.
West Brom has lost five of its last six across competitions, but did secure an impressive, 3-2 victory over Wolves for the lone recent bright spot in that stretch of fixtures in England’s top flight.
As for West Brom’s advanced metrics, it’s hard to imagine they could be get any worst if we’re being honest.
The Baggies are the league’s worst in all four major categories, sitting on 12.9 expected goals and a ghastly 37.6 expected goals against this season. Add those stats up and you have a terrible -24.7 xGDiff and -1.23 xGDiff/90 minutes.
It goes without saying that unless there’s a miracle brewing, West Brom has all but punched its ticket to the second-division Championship next season.
There’s a saying in sports wagering that good teams win and great teams cover. If you’re to apply that analogy in soccer terms, good teams draw and great teams win.
And that’s the story for there lads from Craven Cottage as of late.
Fulham has just two losses in its last eight league contests, but the remaining six games all resulted in draws. Simply put, getting six points out of a possible 18 when locked in the fight of your life to stay up simply won’t cut it.
When comparing advanced metrics with West Brom, Fulham’s numbers are resoundingly as you probably guessed. They’re not great, but they’re also not West Brom’s figures.
The Cottagers sit on 20.3 expected goals and 29.1 expected goals against, resulting in a brutal -8.8 xGDiff and -0.46 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
We have teams set to do battle that don’t score goals or do much of anything else for that matter. Fulham and West Brom have combined to score 30 goals, which is something nine teams ahead of them have done in league play.
That said, I am backing the total staying under the number as my top play. And here are two other main factors that have pushed me to lean this way:
- There have been two or less goals in eight of Fulham’s last nine league tilts.
- The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in eight of the Baggies’ last 10 matches against the Cottagers at The Hawthorns across all competitions.
I will also sprinkle a little on the draw at a ripe +215 odds as well. Fulham has that aforementioned love for stalemates, so I will take a swing on another tie happening in this confrontation.
Picks: Draw (+215) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-139)