Atalanta vs. Bologna Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Tuesday’s Serie A Match

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Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Alejandro Gomes

  • Atalanta will play Bologna in a Tuesday (1:25 p.m. ET, ESPN) Serie A soccer match.
  • Based on updated Serie A odds, Atalanta are -375 favorites over Bologna.
  • Read our full Atalanta vs. Bologna preview, including odds, predictions and two best bet picks.

Bologna at Atalanta Odds, Pick

Bologna odds +850 [BET NOW]
Atalanta Odds -375 [BET NOW]
Draw +510 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (-130/+107) [BET NOW]
Time Tuesday, 1:25 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Monday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Atalanta must continue to win if they want to keep their slim hopes of catching Juventus alive. La Dea are big favorites to do just that against Bologna on Tuesday.

Atalanta have been in great form, racking up seven wins in their last nine games, but even that has only brought them within eight points of Juve. La Dea will need to win their last four matches and hope that Juve stumble if they want to complete a miraculous run.

Bologna is safe in the mid-table and are far enough from the top six where they don’t have much motivation at this point in the season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Atalanta

Atalanta have been one of the most electric teams in all of European soccer over the past year. They play unafraid and are always a threat to score. Their recent form is very good, winning seven and drawing two over their last nine matches.

One of those draws came against Juventus in a match that Atalanta dominated but were unlucky as Cristiano Ronaldo put in two penalties to save Juventus (Serie A is calling more penalties this season relative to the other big leagues because their handball rule is much more rigid).

Atalanta 2019-20 Stats Per Match
Goals For 2.76
Expected Goals For 2.35
Goals Against 1.3
Expected Goals Against 1.12
Total Goals 4.06
Total Expected Goals 3.47

Atalanta lead Serie A in both goals scored (94) and expected goals for (80.34). Their defense isn’t too shabby, either, and ranks sixth in goals against (44) and third in expected goals against (38.13). Higher goals vs. xG on both sides of the ball could be driven by the new handball rule, which won’t necessarily regress.

Recent form would suggest they are outperforming their advanced metrics as well (2.7 goals/game vs 1.8 xG/game). However, that has been true all season, and their style and clinical nature are the reason for that.

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Bologna

Bologna are a pretty average Serie A club. They have very little to play for at this point in the season, and it’s hard for me to see them beating Atalanta on Tuesday.

Their -9 goal differential would suggest they should be a bit lower in the table, but they sit 10th. They have been a bit unlucky on the defensive end this season, giving up 57 goals compared to their xGA of only 47.

They have a -0.6 goal differential since the restart, which is basically spot on with their advanced metrics.

Analysis

Atalanta drew against Verona in their last match, but La Dea didn’t play their typical free-flowing style in that game and Verona were able to dig in and earn a 1-1 result.

Bologna doesn’t play a defense-first style like Verona and their matches against Juventus and AC Milan were wide open, so I expect the same against Atalanta.

Juventus took care of business against Lazio Monday night, so Atalanta will come out firing on Tuesday. I see plenty of chances created, and as usual, Atalanta will convert more of them. I like Atalanta -1.5 up to -130 and Over 3.5 goals up to -125.

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