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Southampton vs. Newcastle United Preview & Prediction: Look to This Appealing Prop Market For Betting Value

Southampton vs. Newcastle United Preview & Prediction: Look to This Appealing Prop Market For Betting Value article feature image
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Simon Stacpoole/Getty. Pictured: Miguel Almiron.

  • Southampton and Newcastle square off with a key three points on the line.
  • Will the Magpies continue on their good run of form?
  • Read on for Nick Hennion's preview & pick.

Southampton vs. Newcastle United Odds

Southampton Odds +290
Newcastle Odds -110
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -115)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Seeking their fourth consecutive victory in the Premier League, Newcastle United head south to face Southampton at the St. Mary’s Stadium.

Including a 4-0 home drubbing of Aston Villa last week, the Magpies are now unbeaten in their last eight fixtures and sit fourth in the table. On the flip-side, Southampton have picked up points in three of their last four, but they dropped all three points last week at Crystal Palace.

Last season, Newcastle earned points in both meetings with Southampton, winning once and drawing once.

Southampton Dealing With Mixed Form

So far this season, Southampton have proven a bit of a mixed bag.

But, if one thing is guaranteed, it’s that Southampton have not played nearly as poorly as their underlying metrics suggest. Through the first 13 fixtures, manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side has a -9 goal differential against a -2.81 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential.

Most of that misfortune can be attributed to Southampton’s defensive record. Through 13 fixtures, they have conceded 20 goals against only 13.35 xGOT, which is the fifth-best defensive mark in the Premier League.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Southampton have performed infinitely better at home. Through six fixtures, they have dropped all three points only twice at St. Mary’s Stadium and have a -0.74 xGOT differential.

Newcastle United Thriving in Premier League

Newcastle have slightly over-performed their underlying metrics this season, but this is still one of the best sides in the Premier League.

Through their first 13 fixtures, the Magpies have a +9.97 xGOT differential, the third-best mark in the Premier League so far. Additionally, manager Eddie Howe’s side has a penchant for getting into dangerous positions as it sits tied for fourth in big scoring chances created, per fotmob.com.

Plus, whereas other squads have struggled to maintain consistency away from home, Newcastle have largely held up. As it stands, Newcastle have the second-best road xGOT differential in the Premier League and have avoided defeat in all but one of their first six travels.

Finally, in terms of their defensive record, Newcastle have also proven very steady. So far this season, Newcastle have surrendered the fourth-fewest xGOT and are allowing only 0.69 xGOT per 90 away from home.

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Southampton vs. Newcastle United Prediction

Both of these teams excel on the defensive end, but I’m taking a stance on an offensive market.

Specifically, both teams to score stood out as a viable option in this match based largely on Southampton’s offensive record at home. At home this season, the Saints have scored at least once in 5-of-6. Expand the sample to include their last 44 home fixtures and bettors will find Southampton have failed to score only eight times.

It worries me slightly to step in front of the Newcastle defense, but it has conceded in 4-of-6 road matches this year and 11-of-16 away from home since January.

Plus, both teams to score has proven quite profitable in this fixture. The “yes” side has cashed in three straight meetings and nine of the past 14.

For those reasons, take both teams to score up to -140.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-135) 

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