Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Roma vs. Inter Milan (Sunday, Jan. 10)
Giuseppe Bellini/Getty Images. Pictured: Roma star Henrikh Mkhitaryan.
- Italian powerhouses Roma and Inter MIlan square off Sunday in a crucial Serie A showdown.
- Should we expect goals galore in this battle of top-three sides?
- Jeremy Pond thinks so and gives his top plays below.
Roma vs. Inter Milan Odds
|Roma Odds||+190 [BET NOW]|
|Inter Milan Odds||+133 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+260 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-180/+143) [BET NOW]|
|Time||6:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Powerhouse European clubs go at it bright and early Sunday when Roma welcomes Inter Milan to Stadio Olimpico for a huge Serie A showdown.
The host side, which enters this match fresh off a 3-1 win over last-place Crotone, could pull even on points with its foe with a victory in this spot. The Yellow and Reds sit in third place on the table with 33 points, which means this is a massive opportunity for the Rome-based outfit.
On the other side, the Nerazzurri was dealt a shocking 3-1 road loss to Sampdoria during its midweek fixture. A victory in that northwest Italy tilt would have pushed Inter Milan past AC Milan into first place in Italy’s top flight, so the club will be anxious to get this latest chance to leapfrog its rival.
Let’s take a look at what could be on deck for these clubs in this meeting.
The Yellow and Reds did what they had to do against last-place Crotone, avoiding a potential “trap” game ahead of this confrontation. Borja Mayoral’s brace and Henrikh Mkhitaryan penalty put the match away in the opening half, with Roma cruising to all three road points.
Balance has been what’s really spearheaded the attack, with numerous players getting in the mix on a match-to-match basis. Mkhitaryan leads the way with nine goals, but Mayoral (six goals), Edin Džeko (eight goals) and Jordan Veretout (eight goals) provide plenty of offensive support.
If you look at Roma’s overall statistics, you have to be impressed. The Yellow and Reds boast a brilliant 35.4 expected goals and solid 18.4 expected goals against, generating a sizzling +17.0 xGDiff and +1.07 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Roma leads all of Serie A in xG, xGDiff and xGDiff/90, which is what it will have to continue to do if it’s going to have any shot at finishing top of the table.
Manager Antonio Conte had to be utterly displeased with the Nerazzurri’s loss to mid-table side Sampdoria. It turned out to be a blown opportunity for Inter Milan to move into first place following AC Milan’s 2-1 defeat against Juventus.
The Nerazzurri, who held a 2.5 xG-1.2 xG advantage at game’s end, obviously generated numerous scoring chances, which really should have resulted in them walking away with at least a road point.
Despite the loss, Conte had to be happy with the fact he was able to bring on Romelu Lukaku and Arturo Vidal as second-half substitutes. The return of Lukaku, who had been dealing with a slight knock, means Inter Milan’s top scoring threat with 12 goals this season will likely return to the Starting XI.
When comparing the advanced metrics with Roma, Inter Milan actually trails its opponent in all major categories. The Nerazzurri have stellar 34.8 expected goals and 20.6 expected goals against, resulting in a stunning +14.2 xGDiff and +0.89 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Trying to handicap these sides is like splitting hairs. Both are desperately looking to close in on league-leading AC Milan, which looked extremely vulnerable in its midweek defeat to Juventus.
That said, I fully expect both clubs to get after it from the outset in Rome and will back the total going over the alternative number of three goals. Playing the total at 2.5 goals with -180 odds is simply too much, so we’ll take a swing at a slightly larger number with the better price.
The key reasons leading me to this play? Take a look:
- The total has gone over 2.5 goals in 21 of Roma’s last 25 league fixtures.
- There have been at least three goals in Roma’s last four home affairs with Inter Milan across all competitions.
- There have been at least three goals in eight of Inter Milan’s last nine league matches.
If you’re looking for a couple of interesting wagers, back Lukaku (+116) and Mkhitaryan (+285) to score in this marquee affair. The former Manchester United teammates are in form, which has me dabbling in these player props.
Picks: Total Over 3 Goals (-110) | Romelu Lukaku To Score — Yes (+116) | Henrikh Mkhitaryan To Score — Yes (+285)