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Trinidad & Tobago vs USA Prediction | Nations League Picks

Trinidad & Tobago vs USA Prediction | Nations League Picks article feature image

Robin Alam/Getty. Pictured: Brendan Aaronson.

Trinidad & Tobago vs USA Odds

Trinidad & Tobago Odds+2800
USA Odds-1200
Over/Under3.5 (+110 / -150)
Day | TimeMonday | 7 p.m. ET
How To WatchTNT | MAX
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The USA Men's National Team will attempt to complete a CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal victory when they meet Trinidad and Tobago for the second leg on Monday night in Port of Spain.

The Soca Warriors were nine minutes plus stoppage time from a historic result in Thursday night's first leg, when they played the Americans even for an extended period despite going down to 10 men before halftime.

But once Ricardo Pepi scored, the floodgates opened late. Antonee Robinson and Gio Reyna also found the net to give the Yanks a 3-0 lead.

That total-goals deficit would appear insurmountable given these sides' history. And if T&T have any hope of getting back in the cup tie, they're going to have to show more attacking menace than they did in Austin, Texas.

But an away goal for the U.S. would provide the Americans an additional edge on the away goals rule and likely clinch the series.

Here is my Trinidad & Tobago Tobago vs USA prediction.

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Trinidad & Tobago Looking For a Miracle

Angus Eve came out in a defensive-minded 5-4-1 shape while playing a low block that was probably predictable given the competition format. It was pretty effective for the first 45 minutes, in which they held the Americans without a single effort on target.

But when it went to a 5-3-1 following Noah Powder's 37th-minute dismissal, that was probably a death knell for such an approach being effective.

The good news is that there is a familiarity within this group of playing a much more adventurous brand of football, scoring 10 times in their four Nations League A group games. The bad news is they also conceded nine times in those contests, all to lesser-talented outfits than the USMNT.

AEK Athens' Levi Garcia remains the Soca Warriors' top attacking threat. He's likely to start this time after coming off the bench on Thursday night.

One other detail to consider: Eve's postgame comments seem to suggest he realizes a two-leg victory is highly unlikely, and that he's more focused on earning a positive result on the day. If true, that has major implications, because it means it is unlikely the Soca Warriors will go on a kamikaze-style attacking mission.

USA Likely to Deploy Similar Approach

An already depleted midfield was hit with even more bad news following Thursday's victory when Weston McKennie had to depart Gregg Berhalter's squad with an injury. That leaves only Yunus Musah healthy from the midfield five that was the Berhalter's first-choice unit at the World Cup a year ago.

Fortunately, Berhalter and Reyna appear to have made amends — or at least a working truce — following the embarrassing saga that embroiled both parties' families following the World Cup.

Reyna was the creator of his own slick third goal on Thursday and played his first full 90 minutes at country or club this fall. He now has three goals in his last two U.S. appearances.

The question heading into leg two is how to interpret the uneven leg one performance, particularly in the first half. With regulars Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah and Tyler Adams all out, Berhalter opted to deploy an experimental 4-2-2-2 shape that seemed to lead the U.S. to stay too narrow and static before halftime.

A reversion to their standard 4-3-3 brought a much better overall second-half performance, even if it took most of the half to find the goal. Given that contrast, it feels unlikely Berhalter would deploy anything else in leg two, the Americans' first match at T&T since the loss that eliminated them from 2018 World Cup Qualifying.

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Trinidad & Tobago vs USA Prediction

Berhalter's group is missing its two most important players and four of its regular starters in the most important part of the park.

They're coming into a game where they already hold a 3-0 lead and have very little incentive to go after goals. They've always struggled as an away side in CONCACAF — earning only one victory in qualifying away from home — and in general, their continental results have been in line with previous USMNTs under other coaches.

When you look at that previous history, this has always been a tough place for the Americans to go, and they've never won here by multiple goals.

The two possible mitigating factors are as follows. This T&T squad is one of the worst in recent memory, and they might be too vulnerable if they send numbers forward.

But the Soca Warriors have seen results improve recently against other second-tier sides in the region that are the kind that limited the U.S. in qualifying.

I believe Eve will be pragmatic in trying to earn a confidence-building result for his young side rather than going after the pipe dream of turning this cup tie around.

That's all reason to back the home side on a handicap wager. I'm choosing to do so at +2.25 goals, +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability. If the U.S. wins by exactly two, half your stake pays out and half pushes.

If you can't bring yourself to fade the Stars and Stripes, there's probably value in an under in some form. These teams have never played a match with more than three goals scored when T&T is the home team.

Pick: Trinidad and Tobago +2.25 (+110 via BetRivers)

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