Olympic Women’s Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: United States vs. Australia Preview (July 27)

Olympic Women’s Soccer Odds, Picks, Prediction: United States vs. Australia Preview (July 27) article feature image
Credit:

Francois Nel/Getty Images. Pictured: United States stars Alex Morgan, left, and Christen Press.

United States vs. Australia Odds

United States Odds -370
Australia Odds +850
Draw +525
Over/Under 3.5 (-130 / +100)
Day | Time Tuesday | 4 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated Monday afternoon via DraftKings.

Well, that was more like it.

Following its stunning 3-0 loss to Sweden in its opening match of the Tokyo Olympics, the United States rebounded in a grand fashion with a 6-1 trashing of overmatched New Zealand this past Saturday to all but secure its place in the knockout round.

Now, the Americans will look to secure second place in Group G when it faces Australia bright and early Tuesday morning in their final group contest. The Matildas enter the match with the same 1-1 record their counterparts possess, but currently sit as 10-1 moneyline underdogs against the red, white and blue.

Barring a major collapse from Sweden in its fixture with winless New Zealand, the winner of this affair would lock up the group runner-up spot. An unlikely draw would give the USWNT second place due to its massive goal difference.

Australia, which suffered a 4-2 setback against Sweden last time out, could still reach the knockout phase with a defeat, but would love to pull off an upset or draw to avoid all potential tiebreaker scenarios.

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United States Displays Dominant Effort in Victory

That calming sound you heard around the United States in the wee hours of Saturday morning was the collective exhalation of American women’s soccer community after that resounding rout of New Zealand.

As forecasted, the USWNT we’re used to seeing showed up against the Football Ferns and dished out a beatdown comparable to the one it endured in that debut loss against Sweden.

Four different Americans opened their accounts in the win, highlighted by Rose Lavelle’s ninth-minute goal that wound up being the match winner. Lindsey Horan added a goal right before the end of the first half, giving the USWNT a 2-0 lead and helping us cash two of our three wagers in the first 45 minutes of action.

And if we’re being honest, the scoreline should have been a whole lot worse  had our women timed their runs better in the New Zealand defensive third of the pitch. The USWNT had not one… not two… not three, but four goals (yes, four goals) ruled offside in the opening half. Suffice it to say, I’ve never seen that happen in a game I played in or watched at any level.

Christen Press and Alex Morgan added second-half goals that were sandwiched in between two New Zealand own goals. Julie Ertz, who assisted on the Horan and Press goals, looked solid as she continues to build up her fitness and stamina after returning from a knee injury.

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Australia Finds Itself in Precarious Position

Things at the Summer Games got off to a lovely start for the Matildas when they secured a 2-1 win over rival New Zealand. Sam Kerr and Tamika Yallop scored for Australia, giving them the coveted three points out of the gate.

However, things came crashing down against mighty Sweden. The Matildas were simply in too deep against the Swedes, who ran roughshod over them just like they did to the Americans. When it was all said and done, Australia had suffered a 4-2 loss and had to turn its attention to the unenviable task of facing a USWNT outfit that seems to have found its footing.

For me, the big question will be how Australia plans to approach this meeting. Do the Matildas come out in an offensive posture and tactical approach? Or do they go the opposite direction and bunker in, with the goal of picking up a draw or somehow getting a goal off a counterattack to stun the Americans?

I’m heavily leaning toward the latter possibility. We could very well see Australia come out in some kind of 4-1-4-1 formation, which essentially puts nine players behind the ball at all times. Similar to that, the Matildas could be even more obvious with their tactics and implement a highly defensive 4-5-1 setup that would tell everyone they’re strictly playing for a point.

Line Movement Indicates Interest in Australia

Late Sunday night, the USWNT was sitting at -450 on the moneyline at DraftKings. In contrast, Australia found itself as a +1000 underdog, with the draw parked at +575 odds.

As of Monday at 1 p.m. ET, line movement has favored the Matildas, as their ML odds currently sit at +850 for a 15-percent change. The Americans have dipped to -370, which is more palatable of a number if you’re into those big ML wagers with a ton of juice. The draw has dropped down at +525 odds as well.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Much like the New Zealand game, I can’t see anything but another masterclass performance from the USWNT heading into the knockout round. The Americans absolutely rocked the Football Ferns, who actually played a decent match in that loss to Australia. So, for me, that’s all I see to when it comes to handicapping this confrontation.

For that reason, we’re going to take a swing with on two wagers to give you some options after going 3-0 in the previous match. I am backing the USWNT to win by two goals or more at -140 odds via DraftKings as my top pick.

Finally, I think there’s plenty of value in the USWNT to win both halves at ripe +170 odds as well, considering this line was previously sitting at +150 odds. I think Australia is going to be hard pressed to score, other than perhaps notching a late goal when this game has already been put away by the American side.

Bottom line, this should be another lopsided USWNT victory and give it even more confidence heading into the business part of these Olympic Games.

Picks: USWNT -1.5 (-140) | USWNT To Win Both Halves (+170)

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