United States vs. Mexico CONCACAF Gold Cup Final Odds, Picks, Prediction, Betting Preview (August 1)
Chuck Burton/Getty Images. Pictured: Gyasi Zardes.
- The United States and Mexico meet in the Gold Cup final on Sunday night in Las Vegas.
- Neither side has been in particularly impressive form of late entering their second matchup of the summer.
- Ian Quillen breaks down where he sees betting value in this rivalry game at Allegiant Stadium.
United States vs. Mexico Odds
|United States Odds||+245|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+123 / -165)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 8:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS1 | Univision | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Saturday night via DraftKings.|
The United States and Mexico meet in a tournament final for the second time in two months when they square off for the Concacaf Gold Cup trophy on Sunday evening in Las Vegas.
The U.S. won the Concacaf Nations League final 3-2 in extra time this June, marking American manager Gregg Berhalter’s first triumph over Mexico since he took the program over in 2019.
But while it’s much of the same Mexican roster looking for revenge, it’s a drastically different American squad trying to keep Mexico from defending its 2019 Gold Cup title.
Kellyn Acosta is the only starter from that June clash who might play on Sunday, and in total only four Americans from that matchday roster are a part of Berhalter’s current Gold Cup squad.
Americans Yet to Hit Stride in Gold Cup
With the beginning of World Cup qualifying looming in early September, Berhalter elected to let most of his top European-based players skip the Gold Cup to focus on the beginning of their club seasons.
The result from this mostly MLS-based squad has been an unpolished but determined run to a third consecutive final after winning four of their previous five games of the tournament 1-0.
Goalkeeper Matt Turner continues to push his way into the conversation for the overall No. 1 role after a couple exceptional first-half saves in the semifinal victory over Qatar.
The Americans also rode their luck when the Asian tournament invitees missed a second-half penalty while the match was still level.
By going with younger lineups to start the quarters and semis — and escaping without damage — Berhalter may be able to field a more experienced side in the finals that is also relatively rested.
Semifinal scorer Gyasi Zardes has come off the bench after halftime in the last two games, as has versatile midfielder Cristian Roldan.
Mexico Enters Final
Mexico’s road to the final has been only marginally more comfortable.
The defending champs required Hector Herrera’s goal in the ninth — yes ninth — minute of second-half stoppage time to secure a 2-1 win over a banged-up Canada side in Thursday’s semifinal.
Mexico was gaining control of the match in the final 10 minutes while Canada was looking fatigued. But the timing of Herrera’s goal was critical in avoiding 30 taxing minutes of extra time with the final following so quickly Sunday.
Carlos Salcedo had a second-half penalty saved after Oberlin Pineda converted an earlier one to give Mexico the lead before the break.
Tajon Buchanan’s leveler for Canada was the first goal Mexico conceded this tournament.
While Mexico was heavily favored, their struggles in the semis are almost a biennial right of passage.
In eight consecutive semifinal appearances, El Tri has two wins in regulation, four wins in extra time or penalties, and two defeats.
In the five previous times they reached the final in that stretch, Mexico won four in regulation.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Berhalter’s ability to take this inexperienced team to a final is a considerable achievement and an endorsement of his stewardship of the U.S. program. But winning the whole thing is probably a fringe too far.
Objectively, Mexico’s roster is more experienced and more talented. It’s unlikely they’ll be caught underestimating the U.S. — if anything, they may be out for blood after the June defeat.
There are other reasons to back El Tri.
Berhalter’s 90-minute managerial record against Mexico’s Tata Martino is a paltry 0-6-2 (w/l/d) with a -12 goal difference between MLS and international play.
The U.S. hasn’t defeated Mexico in the Gold Cup final since 2007, and that team’s roster included in-their-prime Yank greats Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey, Tim Howard and DaMarcus Beasley.
If you really want to back the United States, maybe take a futures bet on “lifting the trophy” rather than playing the win on the money line. The odds are shorter, but the only potential circumstance on Sunday that favors the Americans is extra time and penalties, where Berhalter’s squad rotation and Turner’s goalkeeping could play a bigger role.
I doubt it gets to that stage. Oddsmakers are giving too much credit to the Americans — even as underdogs — for the names on the front of their shirts rather than the backs.
Mexico should see off this particular U.S. squad, and it could do so comfortably.
Pick: Mexico (+118)