USA vs Mexico Odds, Pick, Prediction | Nations League Match Preview

USA vs Mexico Odds, Pick, Prediction | Nations League Match Preview article feature image

Roy Miller/Getty. Pictured: Matt Turner.

USA vs Mexico Odds

Thursday, June 15
10 p.m. ET
USA Odds+125
Mexico Odds+240
Over/Under2.5 (+150 / -200)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+110/ -150)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

The U.S. men's national team meets Mexico on Thursday night in the CONCACAF Nations League semifinals. The match will be the biggest for each nation since their respective campaigns at the 2022 FIFA World Cup.

It's also somewhat of an oddity for the two nations who have dominated the region since the 1990s. It's been 32 years since these sides met at any stage of a CONCACAF elimination prior to the final, when the United States defeated Mexico 2-0 in the 1991 Gold Cup semis.

But the emergence of Canada as a third regional power over the last World Cup cycle has changed the equation. As a result, one of these old rivals will have to settle for playing in a third-place match on Sunday, while the other meets the winner of Canada and Panama in Thursday's first semi.

The Americans are unbeaten in their last five against Mexico, although the last two have been draws, including a friendly that finished 1-1 back in April.

Thursday Could be a Big One For USA

Regardless of the result, Thursday's match has the potential to be an important date in USMNT history, given the potential senior international debut of Folarin Balogun.

The Arsenal product burst out for 21 Ligue 1 goals in his age 21 season while on loan at Reims. And this past spring, the New York-born No. 9 announced his intentions to suit up for the USA at the senior level instead of England, for whom he was also eligible.

That could solve potentially the Americans' biggest weakness from this past World Cup, when they rotated through a few center forwards without any sticking.

Further back on the pitch, however, the USMNT will be without one of its most important players in defensive midfielder Tyler Adams.

The 24-year old hasn't played since March 11 after picking up a hamstring injury that required surgery and contributed to Leeds' relegation from the Premier League. Outside of Christian Pulisic, he was arguably the Americans' most important player during their 2022 World Cup campaign.

Lastly, this will also be the international managerial debut for BJ Callaghan, who took over the interim USMNT role after Anthony Hudson departed to take a permanent job in Saudi Arabian club football. Callaghan was previously Hudson's assistant.

Mexico Dealing With Hefty Injury List

While the U.S. wait on the appointment of a new full-time manager by recently hired sporting director Matt Crocker, Mexico have moved on at a quicker pace in appointing Diego Cocca shortly after a disappointing World Cup showing.

El Tri have also had a pair of friendlies in the last week to ramp up into the Nations League and then the Gold Cup later this summer. Mexico defeated Guatemala 2-0 a week ago and then drew Cameroon 2-2 on Saturday, with both games played in the U.S.

Like the U.S., Mexico also have injury issues. Napoli fullback Chucky Lozano won't play a part in this fixture after he picked up a knee injury in May. And while Cocca refused to give in to mounting pressure to call in the nation's all-time leading goal scorer, Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez, reversing course became impossible when Chicharito suffered an ACL tear earlier this month.

Wolverhampton forward Raul Jimenez was also won't play a role after he was part of the group for the pair of friendlies.

Of Cocca's 23-man roster, 14 ply their trade domestically in Liga MX. At the World Cup, it was a similar proportion: 16 of 26.

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USA vs Mexico Pick

As impressive as the Americans' record looks in this series of late, it's a little deceptive for betting purposes.

When you remove extra time — and recall that all soccer moneyline bets are settled over 90 minutes — the U.S. have won only one and drawn four in the last five against Mexico. That game was also the only one in which the U.S. enjoyed a true home-field advantage — a World Cup game held in Cincinnati in November of 2021. While this game will also be in the United States, it will almost certainly be a pro-Mexican crowd in Las Vegas.

Add the absence of Adams, a lack of club reps for several other Americans recently and the fact Mexico has had managerial continuity since the New Year means I don't think this sets up very well for the Red, White and Blue.

I'll play Mexico +0.5 goals on an Asian handicap wager at -160 odds and an implied 61.5% probability. It's a hefty price, but also a wager that has cashed in four of the last five and nine of the last 11 over 90 minutes, which again is the duration that matters for these wagers.

The Pick: Mexico +0.5 (-159 via BetRivers)

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