Mauricio Pochettino’s USMNT won Group D and wrapped up its position in the World Cup knockout rounds.
The rest of the bracket is still in flux, but we’re starting to get a look at the USA's potential route to World Cup glory, and whisper it quietly, but the path is looking quite nice.
USA's Path to World Cup Final
USMNT Round of 32 Best Bet
Wednesday, July 1
Most likely opposition: Bosnia & Herzegovina
It’s all but certain that the USMNT will be facing off against Bosnia & Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium, and it’s a matchup that suits the team Pochettino has built. It’s important not to underestimate Bosnia, especially given that they defeated Italy in the playoffs to reach the World Cup, but this is a team that's lacking real pace, which could be an issue for the American backline.
The team has goals with Folarin Balogun up top, and his speed can stretch a center-half duo of Nikola Katic and Stjepan Radeljic, neither of whom is that mobile. That makes a goal for the Monaco striker a strong wager here. The left flank, with Antonee Robinson overlapping Christian Pulisic, could be the key battle here, as they create mismatches with Arjan Malic, the 20-year-old who plays in Austria. Not only can the US win this match, but they can also cover a -1.5 spread.
- Best Bet: USMNT Moneyline
- Bet 2: USMNT -1.5
- Bet 3: Folarin Balogun Anytime Goal Scorer
USA Picks for Last 16
Monday, July 6
Most likely opposition: Egypt or Belgium
Neither Egypt nor Belgium is the team that they used to be, and you’d have to expect that the USMNT would be favored in this match. The crowds will relish the chance to face Mohamed Salah and Kevin De Bruyne, and in reality, they shouldn’t be afraid of them.
The pace of those two teams in attacking positions could cause problems if they can get at Tim Ream, but with the USMNT full of confidence and truly playing for each other under Pochettino, I’ll be backing them on the moneyline.
Best Bet: USMNT Moneyline
USA Quarterfinal Bets
Friday, July 10
Most likely opposition: Spain or Portugal
Both the Portuguese and Spanish have blown hot and cold this tournament, but you’d have to think this could be the end of the road for the USMNT if Spain plays near their best.
They have real pace and trickery in wide positions, and in Lamine Yamal, they have the best young player in the world. That said, across 90 minutes, anything can happen, and Spain would be worried about facing the US, especially with a packed crowd at SoFi supporting Pochettino’s men.
You can get +110 on the USMNT to reach this stage at Bet365, which shows how much the market respects the USMNT.
However, at those odds, you’d be better off betting the USMNT to win the Last 32, then putting those winnings on the Last 16.
USA Semifinal Best Bet
Tuesday, July 14
Most likely opposition: France or Germany
The French would be a daunting task, but if they somehow get eliminated before this point, the other teams feel far more beatable, even four-time-winners Germany.
The USA is currently +400 to reach the semifinals at Bet365, which feels like a bad value wager.
USA World Cup Final Prediction
Sunday, July 19
Most likely opposition: Argentina or England
The odds of making it this far, let alone winning, are slim, but in the nation that gave us Hollywood, maybe a movie script ending is possible.
