MLS Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: New York City FC vs. Toronto FC (Wednesday, Sept. 23)
Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: New York City FC goalkeeper Sean Johnson.
- NYCFC and Toronto FC ill meet on Wednesday night at 7:00 p.m. ET in MLS soccer action.
- Based on these teams' bitter history with each other, Jeremy Pond is looking toward tonight's total for betting value.
NYCFC vs. Toronto FC Odds
|NYCFC Odds||+132 [BET NOW]|
|Toronto FC Odds||+185 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+250 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-139/+107) [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLS Live on ESPN+|
The latest chapter of a bitter rivalry takes place on Wednesday’s Major League Soccer card when New York City FC entertains Toronto FC at Red Bull Arena.
Both sides are looking to continue their respective climbs up the Eastern Conference standings, with securing all three points in this important affair the only thing on their minds.
For the time being, New York City FC is playing its “home” matches at the Harrison, N.J. stadium due to scheduling issues with the New York Yankees. So, this showdown could play more like a contest at a neutral site.
The last time these sides met was at the MLS is Back tournament in Orlando, where NYCFC cruised to a 3-1 win in the knockout round of the competition.
New York City FC enters the match fresh off a scoreless draw against New England. Goalkeeper Sean Johnson was brilliant for NYCFC, recording seven saves on his way to the clean sheet.
The result helped NYCFC continue the recent tear it has been on, pushing its unbeaten streak to six games. The club currently sits in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings on 17 points.
In contrast, Toronto FC blew another late lead and settled for a 2-2 tie on the road against D.C. United. The Reds dominated much of the match, but could not keep the host from notching an 88th-minute equalizer, having them leave the stadium with just one point.
Toronto FC sits on 22 points in the conference standings, which is good enough for a share of third place with Orlando City. However, the Reds find themselves in fourth place since Orlando City holds the tiebreaker edge.
Looking at the data and numbers, New York City has been the definition of average when it comes to its numbers. The host side sits on 10.8 expected goals and a subpar 10.3 expected goals against for a +0.5 xGDiff number, along with a +0.05 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Unlike its opponent, Toronto FC features one of the most prolific offenses in the league. The Reds dominate NYCFC in all similar statistical categories, highlighted by a stunning 17.8 xGF on the season. That number is good enough for second overall in MLS, trailing only defending champion Seattle.
Toronto FC rounds out its numbers with 6.2 xGA for an impressive +11.6 xGDiff and +1.28 xGDiff/90, giving the Canadian visitor a distinct edge on paper.
With all that said, I am backing the total to go over the number and both teams to score goals. These offenses are rarely shy when playing each other, with at least three goals being scored in four of their last six meetings.
If you’re looking for a prop play, I would put a little on Toronto FC playmaker Alejandro Pozuelo (+210) to score at any point in the match. Strikers Jozy Altidore (+155) and Ayo Akinola (+210) are the more logical choices, but I recommend taking a swing with Pozuelo at more than 2-to-1 odds.
The Bets: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-139); Both Teams To Score – Yes (-175)