Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Leeds United vs. Everton (Wednesday, Feb. 3)

Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Leeds United vs. Everton (Wednesday, Feb. 3) article feature image
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Tim Keeton/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United star Patrick Bamford, second from right, celebrates a goal with his teammates.

  • Teams going in opposite directions square off Wednesday when Leeds United hosts Everton in crucial meeting at Elland Road.
  • The Peacocks are coming off a resounding win over Leicester City last time out.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match and gives his top picks below.

Leeds vs. Everton Odds

Leeds Odds +145
Everton Odds +185
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+122) 
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Wednesday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Premier League action Wednesday pits teams going in opposite directions as Leeds United hosts Everton in crucial meeting at Elland Road.

The Peacocks, led by Patrick Bamford and Jack Harrison, have won two consecutive matches and continue their climb up the table in their return to England’s top flight. Leeds was brilliant last time out, cruising to a 3-1 victory over powerhouse Leicester City this past weekend at King Power Stadium.

In contrast, the Toffees suffered a stunning 2-0 home loss to struggling Newcastle United in their most recent fixture. The Magpies had gone winless in 10 of their last 11 games across all competitions prior to the victory at Goodison Park.

Making matters worse for Everton was the fact Newcastle had lost six in a row before the upset, which had to make it feel as if it gave away cherished points.

Let’s take a look at these sides and see what might be on deck in this contest.

Leeds

Manager Marcelo Bielsa has his Peacocks in top-notch form as of late, highlighted by the win over fourth-place Leicester City. Thoughts of finishing in the league’s top half of the table had to be a goal for Leeds, yet now it’s looking more like a reality.

The Peacocks, who picked up goals from Bamford, Harrison and Stuart Dallas against the Foxes, are just four points out sixth place in the standings. Needless to say, a victory for Leeds against Everton — one of three teams four points ahead of it — would do wonders for its top-10 push.

If you’re looking for some wild advanced analytics, you don’t have to look any further than the Peacocks. The numbers are simply mind-boggling.

Leeds boasts one of the most prolific offenses, highlighted by its blistering 32.3 expected goals  this season. Unfortunately, it’s brutal 35.9 expected goals against is the second-worst in the entire league. That all results in a lackluster -3.6 xGDiff and -0.18 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Everton

It goes without saying the Toffees blew a golden opportunity against Newcastle. The chance to pick up valuable points, especially in a home match, had to leave everyone frustrated at the Merseyside club.

Yet despite that defeat, Everton can take solace in the fact it knows how to get things done away from Goodison Park. The Toffees have won four of their last five road games, which includes three consecutive victories.

If Everton can triumph in a fourth consecutive road affair, it will be the first time it’s pulled off that accomplishment in more than 35 years.

When perusing Everton’s statistics, it clearly has the better defense. However, everything else is relatively flat across the board. That’s definitely not what you’d expect from a team chasing a top-four spot.

The Toffees have a mediocre 23.2 expected goals and decent 24.1 expected goals against, resulting in a -0.9 xGDiff and -0.05 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Betting Analysis & Picks

This is another fixture on the week’s loaded card that pits very even sides against each other. You could probably have Leeds and Everton play each other 10 times, and they’d likely split the results.

That said, I am going to take a swing on a draw hitting at close to +300 odds in this spot. Everton’s form on the road this season has led me to this play, despite the fact it just suffered that brutal loss to Newcastle.

Throw in the fact Leeds has just two wins in their last eights fixtures at Elland Road, and I like my chances of this value play coming through in this spot.

And despite the fact we have a match featuring the offensive-giddy Peacocks, I am going to play the total to stay under the alternative number of three goals like I did in the Aston Villa-West Ham United contest.

There have been two goals or fewer in eight of Everton’s last 10 league games, which should tell you how sound this club is on the defensive side of the pitch.

Picks: Draw +270 | Total Under 3 Goals (-129)

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