Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Preview: Expect a Slugfest in Wolverhampton (October 15)
Jack Thomas/Getty. Pictured: Jonny Otto.
- Forest secured a point earlier this week, but can they do it against against Wolves?
- Brett Pund offers his expert analysis on the fixture.
- Read on for his best bet.
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest Odds
|Nottingham Forest Odds||+420|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+106 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||TBD|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Wolverhampton Wanderers welcomes Nottingham Forest to the Molineux Stadium on Saturday for a relegation six-pointer between two sides at the foot of the Premier League table.
The hosts are winless in their last three in the Premier League and are still without a full time manager after the firing of Bruno Lage.
Meanwhile, Forest has failed to secure a victory in their last six matches in the league to drop to 19th in the table.
These are two of the worst attacking sides in all of Europe, which should give value to the total in a low-scoring affair.
Wolves In For A Tough Season
After finishing in the top half of the table last season, Wolves’ fans would be happy with just escaping relegation after a terrible start to this campaign.
The same offensive struggles have carried over into this season, with Wolves ranking towards the bottom of the EPL in expected goals (xG), shots on target per 90 minutes and goals per shot (0.03), according to fbref.com.
This is also the same team that has only found the back of the net three times, which is the worst in the English top flight.
It also doesn’t help that Wolves were without key players in midfielder Rúben Neves and striker Raúl Jiménez in the loss at Chelsea, which are two players that the club desperately needs to turn this spell around.
Nottingham Forest Poor On Offensive End
Over the summer, the common discussion was how many players Nottingham Forest was going to sign on any given day. The final tally for the summer was 21, and the disjointed mix of new players haven't delivered yet.
The Reds’ lone victory came all the way back on Matchday 2 against West Ham, but they were able to secure a draw last weekend against Aston Villa.
Manager Steve Cooper’s team joins Wolves with bad offensive metrics, including xG generated (8.4), shots on target per match (2.67) and goals per shot (0.06).
Luckily for Cooper, he did enough to earn a fresh contract even with the horrible start, tying him down at the club until 2025.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Admittedly, this is not the game I would tell you to be watching during this full EPL slate. However, that does not mean there is no betting value in a fixture like this.
With that said, my best bet for this fixture is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at -130 odds via FanDuel.
Yes, Wolves have been terrible offensively, but they do still have some strong defensive metrics. They come into the match ranking in the top 10 in the fewest xG allowed (1.26) and top five in big scoring chances surrendered (13).
The combination of not scoring and not giving up many goals has led to six of Wolves’ nine league fixtures finishing with less than three goals.
Meanwhile, Forest is due some positive regression defensively as the team has given up 22 goals on 16.2 xG through nine matches. In the last four games against Bournemouth, Fulham, Leicester City and Aston Villa, the combined xG average in those contests was just 1.975 per match.
If I was picking a side, I would have to look towards the visitors getting a +0.5 start on the handicap line, but I have more confidence in fading both of these offenses to play an ugly, low-scoring match.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-130)