Knockout-round World Cup action serves up three games on Monday. PRO Projections, meanwhile, flash two major, plus-money picks where data shows real edges vs. the market – one of them a +900 upset prediction!
Throughout the World Cup, probability-based soccer models help guide the biggest mispricings. These are expert-modeled, solid bets we expect to produce long-term value. Subscribers get full access to those projections, plus tools to build parlays, identify goalscorer value and shop lines across various sports.
Here are the top picks for June 29 using Action PRO (one over/under, one moneyline), headlined by a surprise squad to consider backing.
World Cup Moneyline, Over/Under Picks: Japan vs Brazil, Paraguay vs Germany
Things get interesting in the first match of the day between Japan and Brazil.
The top quantitative angle is the total. The over is trading at +116 on many books; PRO’s model forecasts an expected goals total of 2.84. That projection creates a meaningful edge, clearing the threshold we suggest. PRO recommends targeting edges north of roughly 3.5%, and this matchup shows roughly a 10% edge vs. the market. In plain terms, the model expects more scoring than the market is pricing, making the over (+116) an attractive value bet if you trust the projections and want a plus-money wager.
Next, Action PRO models favor Paraguay in a big way.
Market-implied odds at +900 suggest Paraguay’s chances of an outright win are roughly 10%. PRO’s price-sensitive calculators paint a different picture: The fair price should be Paraguay +456, implying an 18% chance.
That’s a large deviation in an underdog market and represents one of the strongest edges for this slate. If you’re looking for a long shot with model backing, this +1000 market price looks incorrect relative to PRO probabilities.
In the last match between Morocco and the Netherlands, no edges are currently strong enough to green-light a pick. Be sure to keep tabs on projections.
