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Elena Rybakina vs. Ajla Tomljanovic Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 6)

Elena Rybakina vs. Ajla Tomljanovic Wimbledon Odds, Pick, Preview (July 6) article feature image
Credit:

Robert Prange/Getty. Pictured: Elena Rybakina.

Rybakina vs. Tomljanovic Odds

Rybakina Odds -190
 Tomljanovic Odds +150
Over/Under 21.5
Time | TV 8 a.m. ET | ESPN/ESPN+
Odds via PointsBet. For tips on how to watch tennis, click here.

Elena Rybakina playing power tennis at a very high level at Wimbledon this year. In the round of 16, Rybakina comfortably beat Petra Martic 7-5, 6-3.

Can Ajla Tomljanovic, who came back from a set deficit to defeat Alize Cornet in the round of 16, provide a more stern test?

Let’s take a closer look at this quarterfinal match.

Rybakina Powering Through Her Opposition

Rybakina played the quintessential brand of power tennis against Martic. She won 72% of her service points, hitting six aces compared to no double faults.

While the Kazakh was broken twice, she won her final seven service games of the match, losing four service points in those seven games.

Rybakina also won 50% of her second-serve return points, breaking serve four times. She hit 26 winners compared to 17 unforced errors and won 12-of-18 points at the net.

When Rybakina is playing at this level, she also forces opponents to go for more than they’re comfortable with.

This happened to Martic, who had been steady all tournament, but hit 13 winners compared to 22 unforced errors against Rybakina.

Rybakina had been 1-2 on grass for the season coming into Wimbledon, but she looks like a different player in London. She’s 19-7 as a professional on grass for a reason. The grass accentuates her already-aggressive game and she can hit her opposition off the court.

In every match at Wimbledon, Rybakina has won over 75% of her first-serve points. Besides an outlier against Qinwen Zheng, she has hit over 20 winners and had a positive winner/unforced error ratio in each match during this tournament.

Rybakina hits her spots on serve and plays with controlled aggression from both wings, but especially the backhand side. And while she’s not totally comfortable at the net, she’s brave enough to move forward if the point calls for it.

The one concern for the Kazakh is that she doesn’t move very well and she doesn’t produce great variety.

Tomljanovic Continues Wimbledon Success

By beating Cornet, Tomljanovic made her second-straight Wimbledon quarterfinal appearance. Last year, the Aussie lost to eventual-champion Ashleigh Barty in the quarterfinals.

Against Cornet, Tomljanovic won 51% of her return points, including 64% on Cornet’s second serve. Tomljanovic generated 15 break points in the match and broke serve on nine occasions.

Tomljanovic’s serve will need to be better against Rybakina than it was against Cornet. She only won 50% of her service points against the Frenchwoman and was broken seven times.

While Cornet is known for her return ability, it is worth noting that the Aussie has not won 50% of her second-serve points in any match this tournament. In addition, Tomljanovic has had a negative winner/unforced error ratio in every match so far at Wimbledon.

However, it’s hard to argue with a 26-16 career-grass record and two consecutive appearances in the final eight of Wimbledon. Tomljanovic plays with excellent controlled aggression from the baseline, often finding the perfect balance between consistency and pace.

Tomljanovic, however, doesn’t have overwhelming power and lacks in her variety. She plays a fairly straight-forward brand of tennis, not doing anything particularly special on the court.

Betting Value

Rybakina has not lost a set at Wimbledon for a reason. She’s playing outstanding power tennis and is blowing past her opponents.

There’s nothing that Tomljanovic produces on the court that can take Rybakina out of her comfort zone.

Tomljanovic’s serve isn’t big enough to consistently win free points on Rybakina’s return, and while she’s solid on return, Rybakina will have by-far the best serve she’s faced all tournament.

In addition, Tomljanovic is in her comfort zone when she’s able to dictate from the baseline and move her opponents around. However, Rybakina’s groundstrokes, particularly the backhand, are powerful enough that she should be able to push the Aussie back and into more defensive positions than she’s comfortable with.

Tomljanovic also doesn’t possess the court craft to force Rybakina off of the baseline and into more cat-and-mouse style points. Her style plays right into the Kazakh’s hands.

Pick:  Rybakina -2.5 games (-134)

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