Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina go head-to-head in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday, January 29.
Pegula took down fellow American Amanda Anisimova in the quarterfinals, while Rybakina defeated Iga Swiatek in straight sets. This match will tentatively start at 4:30 a.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my Australian Open Semifinal preview and an Pegula vs Rybakina prediction for Thursday below.
Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakina Player Prediction
- Pegula vs Rybakina Picks: Rybakina to Win | Rybakina Over 1.5 Double Faults
My Pegula vs Rybakina best bets are on Rybakina to win and Rybakina to commit over 1.5 double faults. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.
Pegula vs Rybakina Odds
| Jessica Pegula Odds | +188 |
| Elena Rybakina Odds | -230 |
| Spread | Rybakina -3.5 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 (-108o / -124u) |
| Pegula-Rybakina H2H | 3-3 |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, 4:30 a.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via FanDuel | |
Pegula vs Rybakina Preview, Prediction
by Tudor Cosma
Jessica Pegula Betting Preview
Pegula is a 31-year-old American currently ranked world No. 6. By reaching the final four in Melbourne, she's competing in her third semifinal over the last six Grand Slams — a 50% success rate that's no accident. It highlights the fact that Pegula is one of the most elite and consistent players on the tour.
Unlike Coco Gauff, Mirra Andreeva or Victoria Mboko, Pegula wasn't a teenage prodigy; her progress has been a steady climb. Just five years ago, she had never even cracked the WTA top 50.
However, after a significant breakthrough, she has now finished four consecutive years in the top 10. While some critics still unfairly dismiss her as a "silver spoon" athlete due to her family's immense wealth (her father owns the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres), Pegula has proven her mettle through tireless work.
Choosing the grueling life of a pro tennis player over a life of leisure in a billionaire family speaks volumes about her character, motivation and self-belief.
This grounded attitude makes her unflappable on court. She's not intimidated by anyone and genuinely believes she can dominate even the world's top 3. Her greatest strength is her relentless consistency; she rarely has an "off" day and almost never gifts opponents easy unforced errors.
Last season followed her standard of excellence. She reached the US Open semifinals, where she pushed Aryna Sabalenka to the limit in a match decided by just a single break in the final set.
She also secured titles on all three surfaces: Austin (hard), Charleston (clay) and Bad Homburg (grass). She finished 2025 with a final in Wuhan and a semifinal at the WTA Finals, where she was defeated by today's opponent.
In 2026, she reached the Brisbane semifinals but suffered a heavy loss to Marta Kostyuk.
However, here in Melbourne, Pegula has been sublime. She dispatched both Madison Keys and Anisimova in straight sets to reach her first career Australian Open semifinal. While Anisimova struggled with 44 unforced errors in their quarterfinal, Pegula’s clinical play gave her no room to breathe.
Elena Rybakina Betting Preview
Rybakina, the 26-year-old Kazakh world No. 5, is once again proving why she belongs in the same elite tier as Sabalenka and Swiatek. While she may have fewer Grand Slam titles and a lower peak ranking (No. 3) than her peers, the quality of her game is indistinguishable from the very best.
Rybakina has a psychological edge over the top tier, boasting two wins over Swiatek in the last three months and a dominant victory over Sabalenka in the 2025 WTA Finals.
Despite her success, she often remains under the radar of the media, likely due to her introverted and quiet personality. She avoids the spotlight and rarely produces the kind of "theatrical" tennis that journalists crave.
Her career faced a significant distraction during the controversy surrounding her coach, Stefano Vukov. Throughout his WTA suspension, Rybakina defended him fiercely, and her form suffered during his absence. Since his return, she's rediscovered her inner peace and her results have skyrocketed.
Standing tall with one of the most powerful games in the circuit, Rybakina’s serve is statistically the best in the world; she led the WTA in aces in 2025. She's equally dangerous on the return, always looking for the knockout blow.
Her current form is terrifying; she dismantled Elise Mertens without dropping serve and completely dominated Swiatek in the quarterfinals.
If she continues to serve at this level, she'll be nearly impossible to stop.
Pegula vs Rybakina Predictions, Betting Analysis
Pegula is a model of consistency and has played exceptionally well to reach this stage. However, Rybakina is currently playing at a level that few can match. She's maintained the peak form that won her the WTA Finals trophy and has only improved as the tournament has progressed.
Her straight-sets victory over Swiatek was a statement of intent, and her serve is providing too many "free points" for opponents to overcome.
My prediction is a victory for Rybakina.
I also have another pick, though.
Pegula enters this match with immense confidence and is known for putting pressure on her opponent's serve by standing deep and returning consistently. While Rybakina was stable early in the tournament, the pressure of facing elite opponents has caused her second serve to waver.
She committed three double faults against Swiatek and famously struggled with seven in her loss to Karolina Muchova.
In a high-stakes semifinal against a returner as solid as Pegula, I expect her to miss at least two second serves.
Pick: Rybakina to Win | Rybakina Over 1.5 Double Faults
