Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev face off in the semifinals of the Australian Open on Thursday, January 29.
Alcaraz is seeking his first Australian Open title of his career, while Zverev is looking for his first Grand Slam crown in general. This match will tentatively start at 10 p.m. p.m. ET and will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my Australian Open Semifinal preview and an Alcaraz vs Zverev prediction for Friday below.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Player Prediction
- Alcaraz vs Zverev Pick: Alexander Zverev Game Handicap
My Alcaraz vs Zverev best bet is on Zverev to cover the game handicap. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live Australian Open odds page.
Alcaraz vs Zverev Odds
| Carlos Alcaraz Odds | -510 |
| Alexander Zverev Odds | +392 |
| Spread | Alcaraz -5.5 |
| Over/Under | 36.5 (-125o / -120u) |
| Alcaraz-Zverev H2H | 6-6 |
| Time | How to Watch | Thursday, 10 p.m. ET | ESPN, ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings | |
Alcaraz vs Zverev Preview, Prediction
by Tudor Cosma
Carlos Alcaraz Betting Preview
Alcaraz, the 22-year-old Spaniard and current world No. 1, is just two victories away from a historic achievement: becoming the youngest player ever to complete the career Grand Slam.
While the path seems short, the pressure is mounting. However, Alcaraz has historically thrived under high stakes, particularly in major finals.
Alcaraz essentially has no glaring weaknesses. Mentally resilient and fueled by a positive, crowd-pleasing personality, he moves past difficult moments almost instantly. His serve has improved drastically over the past year — now mirroring Novak Djokovic’s technique — and his baseline speed remains elite.
Despite his youth, he already boasts six Grand Slam titles (two at Roland Garros, two at Wimbledon, two at the US Open), leaving the Australian Open as his final hurdle.
His 2025 season was monstrous, securing eight titles, including a dramatic Roland Garros final against Jannik Sinner, where he saved three match points.
He entered 2026 amid significant changes, notably parting ways with his longtime coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and expressing dissatisfaction with his winter preparation.
Nevertheless, his form in Melbourne has been impeccable. He reached the semifinals without dropping a single set, most recently dismantling Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals.
Alexander Zverev Betting Preview
Zverev is a 28-year-old German ranked world No. 3. Often cited as the best player never to have won a major, Zverev has reached three Grand Slam finals but has struggled with mental blocks on the biggest stages.
As the underdog in this semifinal, the pressure may be slightly lifted, potentially allowing him to play more freely.
Zverev’s career is impressive regardless of the missing major; he's an Olympic gold medalist and a multi-time Masters champion.
In 2025, he nearly reached the world No. 1 ranking, but physical and mental fatigue saw him falter in late-season matches.
Over the winter, he focused on becoming more aggressive, specifically looking to attack the second ball — a tactic he adopted from watching Alcaraz and Sinner.
His serve remains one of the most dangerous in the world, and his movement is exceptional for his height.
While he has faced controversy off-court, his resilience is notable, particularly as he manages Type 1 diabetes while competing.
After a runner-up finish here last year, he's raised his level significantly in 2026. Though he's dropped a set in most of his matches this fortnight, his serving performance against Learner Tien in the quarterfinals (24 aces, zero breaks conceded) proves he's in peak form.
Alcaraz vs Zverev Predictions, Betting Analysis
Alcaraz is the justified favorite after winning five matches in straight sets, but Zverev's serve makes him a difficult opponent to "blow out" of a match.
Zverev has become significantly more aggressive off the baseline and his mental fortitude appears stronger than in previous seasons.
Given their balanced head-to-head history and Zverev’s elite serving stats — recording 24 aces in his last match — I expect a highly competitive contest.
This game handicap provides cover even if Alcaraz wins in four sets.
Pick: Alexander Zverev Game Handicap
