The Golden State Valkyries (2-2) and New York Liberty (4-0) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The game will be broadcast live on WWOR.
Let's get into my Valkyries vs. Liberty prediction and WNBA pick.
The Liberty are favored by -18 on the spread, with the over/under set at 163.5 (-110o / -110u). The Liberty are a -3000 favorite to win outright, while the Valkyries are +1260 to pull off the upset.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Odds, Pick
| Valkyries Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17 -112 | 162.5 -112o / -108u | +1100 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17 -108 | 162.5 -112o / -108u | -2100 |
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Spread: Liberty -17 (-110 ), Valkyries +17 (-110)
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Over/Under: 162.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Moneyline: Valkyries +1100, Liberty -2100
- Valkyries vs. Liberty Best Bet: Valkyries +18.5
Valkyries vs. Liberty Preview
The Liberty are better than the Valkyries, that much is obvious. In fact, New York beat Golden State by 28 (95-67) just two days ago. However, that doesn't mean this game is without betting value. In fact, that recent result is a key component to today's pick. But before we dive into the pick, let's take a quick look at the matchup.
New York is a perfect 4-0 on the season and features four players averaging at least 10 points per game. Offseason acquisition Natasha Cloud (15.3 points and 8.3 assists per game) has fit in seamlessly and is one of the reasons the Liberty have been so dominant thus far.
Across the court, the Valkyries are 2-2, which isn't great, but for an expansion team, one could argue that they're exceeding early expectations. Kayla Thornton's 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per game lead Golden State and she'll likely need to post better than those numbers if the Valkyries are going to compete with New York tonight.
Valkyries vs. Liberty Prediction, Betting Analysis
This strategy plays off the perception that “bad” teams coming off a loss should be avoided.
When such teams are large underdogs, it’s often because they were recently blown out or are on a cold streak, but when the previous loss was by a modest margin, this system finds value in the market’s overreaction.
The public tends to pile on to fading weak teams after a loss, which leads to artificially widened spreads — ideal for covering. These teams often fight harder than expected in the follow-up game and keep the margin within the number.
Overall, this system is 175-120-4 (59%) with a 15% ROI. This season, it's 3-2 with a 14% ROI.
Best Bet: Valkyries +18.5
