The sixth World Baseball Classic begins on Wednesday, March 4, and will run through the championship game on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida.
The goal for this article is to highlight top daily projection edges for World Baseball Classic moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Tuesday, I preview Canada-Puerto Rico, Israel-Netherlands, and Italy-United States.
If you want my bets, make sure to follow me in the Action Network App, and if you want my projections for the 5 a.m. ET games, or any of the weekend WBC games, make sure to follow me on Twitter.
Here are my World Baseball Classic Predictions and WBC picks for Tuesday, March 10.
World Baseball Classic Predictions for March 10
Canada vs. Puerto Rico Picks
Despite falling flat against Panama, Canada's lineup is legitimately better than Puerto Rico's. I project Canada at roughly a 91 wRC+ against MLB-level pitching, compared to 83 for Puerto Rico.
Puerto Rico has home-field advantage and a much better bullpen — Canada's relief pitchers are struggling to build a bridge to the ninth inning.
Still, even after factoring in home-field advantage, my model puts Puerto Rico at around 55% in this matchup. In contrast, the market odds, closer to -290, imply a win rate closer to 75%, a substantial differential relative to my projection.
One strategic detail complicated the projection for this matchup: Canada controls its own destiny and can win Pool A with victories over both Puerto Rico and Cuba, but it only needs to defeat Cuba to advance. As a result, if they fall behind early against Puerto Rico, you may see Canada's manager, Ernie Whitt, attempt to save his best relief arms for Wednesday's must-win matchup with Cuba.
There is substantial value both in Canada's moneyline and spread.
Still, I also show an edge on the total, setting the number closer to 9 (similar to my projection for Monday night's Puerto Rico-Cuba tilt) after several days of low scoring at Hiram Bithorn Stadium. Pool A has averaged just 7.3 runs per game through five days (the lowest of any venue) due in part to strong winds knocking flyballs down (and leading to adventurous routes for outfielders).
I have generally been much lower than the market on Puerto Rico's totals, in particular, and cashed an Under 10.5 and an Under 9.5 in two of their matchups.
But I think the market has moved too far in the other direction for Tuesday, and I'll buy back on an Over.
Pick: Canada ML (bet to +133) | Canada +2.5 Runs (bet to +1.5, -125) | Over 8 (bet to 8.5, +100)
Israel vs. Netherlands Picks
The market is pricing the Netherlands as a comfortable favorite, while I see this game as closer to a coin flip.
The Netherlands has the better lineup, but things are closer than they appear: both teams project well below an MLB-average offense, and I'd only project Israel's lineup about five points worse by wRC+.
The pitching is the main separator. The starting pitchers are relatively comparable, but Israel's bullpen is much deeper than you may realize, with plenty of arms that have MLB-level projections in the mid-fours FIP range. In contrast, the Netherlands' bullpen is mostly made up of Dutch domestic league arms and Kenley Jansen.
I would bet Israel down to +120. There is also value in their spread (+1.5 runs), but I show a much more significant edge on the moneyline.
Additionally, I am above-market on the total, as I believe the market is overcorrecting downward after a run of unders across pool play, providing value in two of the three Overs for Tuesday's slate.
Pick: Israel ML (bet to +120) | Over 8.5 (bet to -125)
Italy vs. United States Picks
I am lower than market on Team USA vs. Italy, as I was extremely high on the Italians coming into the tournament, and feel that they have a similarly competitive roster as Mexico — I expect to bet the Italian side that head-to-head matchup on Wednesday, which will likely determine the second team to advance from Pool B.
As a result, while Italy can be competitive in this game, manager Francisco Cervelli should probably try to sacrifice this contest and save his best arms for Wednesday. I have Michael Lorenzen as their projected starter, but he may get held back for the Mexico matchup.
As a result, while I project very slight moneyline value on Italy, I'd begin to consider betting them at +700, but I ultimately align with the market on both the spread and the total.
Unless one of those three lines blows out of proportion compared to current levels, I'm happy to pass on this game.
Pick: Pass
Zerillo's WBC Predictions & Picks for March 10
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- Canada (+240, 0.5u), FanDuel; bet to +133
- Canada +2.5 Runs (-135, 0.5u), FanDuel; bet to +1.5 (-125)
- Canada/Puerto Rico, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u), DraftKings (be to 8.5, +100)
- Israel (+188, 1u), FanDuel; bet to +120
- Israel/Netherlands, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u), DraftKings; bet to -125
